How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Sacramento State — the basics
55 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 20-14 | 59% | +0.6 | n=34 |
| out of conference | 14-10 | 58% | +3.6 | n=24 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| vs the Pac-12 | 3-2 | 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| in September | 13-8 | 62% | +3.0 | n=21 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 22-27 | 45% | -1.4 | n=49 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Sacramento State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 55 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game | n=55 |
Sacramento State — combinations
64 lean Sacramento State · 0 lean against
Read this first. 71 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 3.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 8-2 | 80%from 73% | +7.1 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-0 | 100%from 80% | +12.1 | n=5 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 59% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| + in September | 8-2 | 80%from 73% | +7.1 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-0 | 100%from 80% | +12.1 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 73% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + vs the Pac-12 | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + vs the Pac-12 | 3-2 | 60%from 73% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 58% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| + in September | 8-2 | 80%from 73% | +7.1 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-0 | 100%from 80% | +12.1 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 73% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + vs the Pac-12 | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + vs the Pac-12 | 3-2 | 60%from 73% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +3.0 | n=5 |
| out of conference + in September | 13-5 | 72%from 58% | +6.7 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-3 | 75%from 72% | +9.1 | n=12 |
| on the road + in September | 11-5 | 69%from 59% | +4.0 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-3 | 70%from 69% | +5.2 | n=10 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.