James Madison at San Diego State—

ST Model James Madison -2.1

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

James Madison — the basics

56 graded games since 2014

on the road	19-10	66%	+4.3	n=29
out of conference	15-9	63%	+3.9	n=24
vs an FBS opponent	32-20	62%	+5.1	n=52
vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%	-0.8	n=10
in September	15-4	79%	+8.4	n=19
in the last 5 seasons	31-20	61%	+4.7	n=51

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

James Madison — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +7.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 56 graded games: +4.4 pts vs their number per game	n=56

James Madison — combinations

39 lean James Madison · 0 lean against

Read this first. 52 combinations shown. The best one here is 92%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in September	14-2	88%from 62%	+11.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-1	92%from 88%	+12.6	n=12
on the road + in September	10-2	83%from 66%	+8.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 83%	+8.8	n=8
in September + in the last 5 seasons	12-3	80%from 79%	+8.3	n=15
out of conference + in September	11-4	73%from 63%	+8.7	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 73%	+8.6	n=11
on the road + out of conference	9-4	69%from 66%	+4.2	n=13
+ in September	8-2	80%from 69%	+9.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 80%	+9.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 69%	+5.4	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-4	69%from 69%	+4.2	n=13
+ in September	8-2	80%from 69%	+9.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 69%	+5.4	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 69%	-1.2	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 69%	-1.2	n=8
+ in September	3-2	60%from 50%	+5.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	+2.8	n=5
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-8	67%from 66%	+4.7	n=24
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	19-10	66%from 66%	+4.3	n=29
+ in September	10-2	83%from 66%	+8.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 83%	+8.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-8	67%from 66%	+4.7	n=24
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 66%	-1.2	n=8
+ in September	3-2	60%from 50%	+5.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	+2.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

San Diego State — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	36-35	51%	-0.5	n=71
out of conference	26-27	49%	+0.7	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	77-59	57%	+1.5	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	67-53	56%	+1.1	n=120
in September	17-22	44%	-1.4	n=39
at this venue	13-12	52%	+1.3	n=25
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	-0.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

San Diego State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +6.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=146

San Diego State — combinations

45 lean San Diego State · 27 lean against

Read this first. 91 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	64-46	58%from 57%	+1.4	n=110
+ in September	6-4	60%from 58%	-2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 58%	+1.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 59%	+1.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-19	59%from 58%	-0.5	n=46
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-21	58%from 56%	-0.5	n=50
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	13-10	57%from 49%	+1.1	n=23
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	32-26	55%from 57%	-0.1	n=58
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	11-9	55%from 56%	+1.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 55%	+1.1	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	12-10	55%from 57%	+1.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 55%	+1.8	n=22
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	23-20	53%from 49%	+1.4	n=43
+ vs a G5 opponent	10-7	59%from 53%	+0.8	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 59%	+2.1	n=7
+ in September	4-3	57%from 59%	-3.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+1.4	n=19
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 53%	+2.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=7
+ in September	14-15	48%from 53%	-0.2	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-7	50%from 48%	+0.5	n=14
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+0.5	n=5
at home + vs an FBS opponent	34-30	53%from 51%	-0.0	n=64
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 53%	+1.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 55%	+1.8	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	28-25	53%from 53%	-0.9	n=53
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 53%	+1.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 53%	0.0	n=22
+ in September	2-4	33%from 53%	-6.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-14	52%from 53%	+0.3	n=29
+ in September	6-9	40%from 53%	-1.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 40%	+0.1	n=8
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 40%	+0.7	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.