How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Fresno State — the basics
140 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 37-33 | 53% | -0.5 | n=70 |
| vs San José State | 7-2 | 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| out of conference | 26-22 | 54% | +2.3 | n=48 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-64 | 52% | -0.4 | n=133 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 60-52 | 54% | +0.5 | n=112 |
| vs the Mountain West | 48-44 | 52% | -0.9 | n=92 |
| in September | 20-18 | 53% | +0.8 | n=38 |
| at this venue | 3-2 | 60% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 33-32 | 51% | +0.7 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Fresno State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game | n=140 |
| Fresno State has covered 2 straight | n=2 |
Fresno State — combinations
88 lean Fresno State · 24 lean against
Read this first. 121 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San José State + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| vs San José State + vs an FBS opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| vs San José State + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| vs San José State + vs the Mountain West | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +5.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +11.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 78% | +1.1 | n=5 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 16-10 | 62%from 54% | +5.0 | n=26 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 12-8 | 60%from 54% | +7.3 | n=20 |
| + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 60% | +8.3 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-3 | 57%from 64% | +4.2 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-5 | 58%from 60% | +7.0 | n=12 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.