How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
North Texas — the basics
149 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 33-37 | 47% | -1.5 | n=70 |
| out of conference | 27-27 | 50% | +0.2 | n=54 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 66-71 | 48% | -0.2 | n=137 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 12-5 | 71% | +5.5 | n=17 |
| in September | 23-22 | 51% | +1.2 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 39-27 | 59% | +3.0 | n=66 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
North Texas — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +7.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 149 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game | n=149 |
| North Texas has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
North Texas — combinations
23 lean North Texas · 13 lean against
Read this first. 49 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + vs a P5 opponent | 12-5 | 71%from 50% | +5.5 | n=17 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 71% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 71% | -0.4 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 12-5 | 71%from 48% | +5.5 | n=17 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 71% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 71% | -0.4 | n=5 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 8-4 | 67%from 47% | +5.2 | n=12 |
| + in September | 5-2 | 71%from 67% | +3.1 | n=7 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 71% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 19-12 | 61%from 47% | +2.0 | n=31 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 37-24 | 61%from 48% | +2.9 | n=61 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 71% | -0.4 | n=5 |
| on the road + in September | 11-8 | 58%from 47% | -0.3 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-5 | 44%from 58% | -7.9 | n=9 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 21-21 | 50%from 50% | -0.4 | n=42 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 12-5 | 71%from 50% | +5.5 | n=17 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 71% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 71% | -0.4 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 50% | -2.0 | n=20 |
| + in September | 12-13 | 48%from 50% | -1.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-7 | 42%from 48% | -6.0 | n=12 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 18-18 | 50%from 48% | -0.3 | n=36 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-8 | 50%from 50% | -3.8 | n=16 |
| out of conference + in September | 17-17 | 50%from 50% | +0.9 | n=34 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-10 | 38%from 50% | -4.8 | n=16 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.