Rice at Fresno State—

ST Model Fresno State -13.5

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Rice — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

on the road	34-31	52%	-1.0	n=65
out of conference	21-25	46%	-1.2	n=46
vs an FBS opponent	63-66	49%	-2.0	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	11-15	42%	-2.6	n=26
in September	19-23	45%	-1.7	n=42
in the last 5 seasons	28-33	46%	-2.5	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Rice — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -7.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.7 pts vs their number per game	n=136
Rice has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Rice — combinations

1 lean Rice · 47 lean against

Read this first. 56 combinations shown. The best one here is 52%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	34-31	52%from 52%	-1.0	n=65
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-9	44%from 52%	-3.2	n=16
+ in September	3-8	27%from 44%	-9.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 44%	-11.1	n=6
+ in September	10-13	43%from 52%	-4.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 43%	-7.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-16	41%from 52%	-4.0	n=27
on the road + out of conference	10-10	50%from 52%	-1.9	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	10-10	50%from 50%	-1.9	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-9	44%from 50%	-3.2	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 50%	-5.6	n=8
+ in September	5-9	36%from 50%	-7.5	n=14
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-9	44%from 50%	-3.2	n=16
+ in September	3-8	27%from 44%	-9.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 44%	-11.1	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 50%	-5.6	n=8
+ in September	5-9	36%from 50%	-7.5	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 36%	-9.3	n=6
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 45%	-1.4	n=21
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	18-21	46%from 46%	-2.2	n=39
+ vs a P5 opponent	11-15	42%from 46%	-2.6	n=26
+ in September	5-11	31%from 42%	-5.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 42%	-7.4	n=10
+ in September	9-13	41%from 46%	-4.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 41%	-6.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 46%	-7.1	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Fresno State — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
out of conference	26-22	54%	+2.3	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	69-64	52%	-0.4	n=133
vs a G5 opponent	60-52	54%	+0.5	n=112
in September	20-18	53%	+0.8	n=38
at this venue	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.7	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Fresno State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=140
Fresno State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Fresno State — combinations

54 lean Fresno State · 30 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 73% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	16-10	62%from 54%	+5.0	n=26
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent	12-8	60%from 54%	+7.3	n=20
+ at this venue	10-4	71%from 60%	+11.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 71%	+6.9	n=8
+ in September	9-5	64%from 60%	+8.3	n=14
+ at this venue	9-4	69%from 64%	+10.1	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 64%	+4.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 60%	+7.0	n=12
out of conference + in September	18-14	56%from 54%	+3.3	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-5	64%from 56%	+5.8	n=14
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	+6.0	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 56%	+3.2	n=8
at home + vs a G5 opponent	32-25	56%from 52%	+1.1	n=57
+ in September	9-5	64%from 56%	+7.8	n=14
+ at this venue	9-5	64%from 64%	+7.8	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 64%	+0.9	n=8
+ at this venue	32-25	56%from 56%	+1.1	n=57
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-0.4	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-0.4	n=27
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	32-25	56%from 54%	+1.1	n=57
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-0.4	n=27
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 53%	+1.1	n=18
at home + out of conference	11-9	55%from 52%	+6.6	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	10-4	71%from 55%	+11.3	n=14
+ at this venue	10-4	71%from 71%	+11.3	n=14
+ in September	9-4	69%from 71%	+10.1	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 71%	+6.9	n=8
+ in September	9-7	56%from 55%	+6.0	n=16
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	+6.0	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 56%	+3.2	n=8
+ at this venue	11-9	55%from 55%	+6.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+5.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+5.9	n=11
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-7	46%from 55%	+3.7	n=13
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-2	71%from 46%	+10.5	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 46%	+10.9	n=7
+ at this venue	6-7	46%from 46%	+3.7	n=13
+ in September	4-5	44%from 46%	+1.3	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.