Oregon State at UTEP—

ST Model Oregon State -3.6

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Oregon State — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-34	42%	-2.1	n=59
out of conference	20-27	43%	-2.9	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	57-67	46%	-2.0	n=124
vs a G5 opponent	16-16	50%	-0.2	n=32
vs the Mountain West	10-9	53%	-0.8	n=19
in September	21-17	55%	+1.6	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	31-31	50%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Oregon State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=134
Oregon State has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Oregon State — combinations

59 lean Oregon State · 26 lean against

Read this first. 96 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Mountain West + in September	9-3	75%from 53%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+5.1	n=7
vs a G5 opponent + in September	14-5	74%from 50%	+6.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 74%	+9.8	n=10
in September + in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 55%	+7.0	n=19
on the road + vs the Mountain West	6-3	67%from 42%	-0.3	n=9
+ in September	5-1	83%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	-1.0	n=6
out of conference + in September	17-11	61%from 43%	+2.4	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 61%	+6.5	n=15
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	6-5	55%from 42%	-1.9	n=11
+ in September	5-1	83%from 55%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	6-3	67%from 55%	-0.3	n=9
+ in September	5-1	83%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	-1.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	-3.0	n=8
out of conference + vs the Mountain West	10-9	53%from 43%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	9-3	75%from 53%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+5.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 53%	-2.6	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mountain West	10-9	53%from 46%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	9-3	75%from 53%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+5.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 53%	-2.6	n=14
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mountain West	10-9	53%from 50%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	9-3	75%from 53%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+5.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 53%	-2.6	n=14

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UTEP — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

at home	26-36	42%	-1.6	n=62
out of conference	15-29	34%	-2.2	n=44
vs an FBS opponent	52-71	42%	-1.2	n=123
vs a P5 opponent	5-12	29%	-4.2	n=17
in September	15-28	35%	-3.4	n=43
at this venue	26-36	42%	-1.6	n=62
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-0.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UTEP — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=132
UTEP has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

UTEP — combinations

0 lean UTEP · 59 lean against

Read this first. 71 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	13-16	45%from 42%	-1.4	n=29
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	13-16	45%from 42%	-1.4	n=29
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	25-32	44%from 42%	-1.1	n=57
at home + vs an FBS opponent	23-30	43%from 42%	-1.0	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 43%	-1.7	n=25
+ at this venue	23-30	43%from 43%	-1.0	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 43%	-1.7	n=25
+ in September	5-9	36%from 43%	-3.7	n=14
+ at this venue	5-9	36%from 36%	-3.7	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 36%	-3.7	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	23-30	43%from 42%	-1.0	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 43%	-1.7	n=25
at home + out of conference	8-11	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=19
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-5	50%from 42%	+1.2	n=10
+ in September	5-5	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=10
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 42%	+0.7	n=9
+ in September	8-11	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 42%	+0.7	n=9
+ at this venue	8-11	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=19
+ at this venue	8-11	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 42%	+0.7	n=9
out of conference + at this venue	8-11	42%from 34%	-1.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 42%	+0.7	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.