Colorado State at UTSA—

ST Model UTSA -16.7

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Colorado State — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-30	49%	+0.5	n=59
out of conference	19-27	41%	-6.2	n=46
vs an FBS opponent	56-70	44%	-2.0	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	49-61	45%	-1.9	n=110
in September	16-22	42%	-5.3	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	25-35	42%	-3.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Colorado State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -8.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Colorado State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Colorado State — combinations

17 lean Colorado State · 25 lean against

Read this first. 51 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + out of conference	9-6	60%from 49%	+1.9	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 60%	+4.0	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.9	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 60%	+4.0	n=9
+ in September	7-5	58%from 60%	+3.1	n=12
+ in September	7-5	58%from 60%	+3.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 58%	+7.5	n=6
on the road + in September	8-6	57%from 49%	+3.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 57%	+7.5	n=6
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=28
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	29-30	49%from 49%	+0.5	n=59
+ in September	8-6	57%from 49%	+3.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 57%	+7.5	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=28
+ vs a G5 opponent	22-25	47%from 49%	+0.8	n=47
+ in September	3-2	60%from 47%	+8.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 47%	-0.5	n=21
vs a G5 opponent + in September	9-10	47%from 45%	-4.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 47%	-7.7	n=9
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	22-25	47%from 49%	+0.8	n=47
+ in September	3-2	60%from 47%	+8.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 47%	-0.5	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	46-55	46%from 44%	-1.0	n=101
+ in September	6-5	55%from 46%	-0.6	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 55%	-1.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-25	46%from 46%	-2.3	n=46

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UTSA — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	35-37	49%	+1.7	n=72
out of conference	26-28	48%	-0.3	n=54
vs an FBS opponent	70-71	50%	+0.2	n=141
vs a P5 opponent	10-13	43%	-1.2	n=23
in September	17-27	39%	-3.5	n=44
at this venue	34-37	48%	+1.5	n=71
in the last 5 seasons	37-30	55%	+1.7	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UTSA — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

UTSA — combinations

10 lean UTSA · 70 lean against

Read this first. 89 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 49%	+5.3	n=33
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 48%	+5.0	n=32
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-29	54%from 50%	+1.6	n=63
at home + vs an FBS opponent	31-33	48%from 49%	+1.8	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-12	59%from 48%	+5.7	n=29
+ at this venue	30-33	48%from 48%	+1.5	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-12	57%from 48%	+5.3	n=28
+ in September	5-8	38%from 48%	-1.2	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 38%	-5.9	n=5
+ at this venue	5-8	38%from 38%	-1.2	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	2-4	33%from 48%	-0.8	n=6
+ in September	2-3	40%from 33%	-0.2	n=5
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 33%	-0.8	n=6
at home + at this venue	34-37	48%from 49%	+1.5	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 48%	+5.0	n=32
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	22-24	48%from 48%	-0.6	n=46
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-13	43%from 48%	-1.2	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 43%	-3.4	n=8
+ in September	6-12	33%from 43%	-4.4	n=18
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 43%	-0.8	n=6
+ in September	12-18	40%from 48%	-3.4	n=30
+ at this venue	4-7	36%from 40%	-1.6	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 40%	-6.5	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-13	38%from 48%	-3.2	n=21
+ at this venue	4-11	27%from 48%	-5.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 27%	-9.8	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.