Texas State at San Diego State—

ST Model San Diego State -5.6

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Texas State — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-36	46%	-1.3	n=67
in a conference game	39-51	43%	-2.3	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	57-71	45%	-1.4	n=128
vs a P5 opponent	6-9	40%	+2.2	n=15
in October	13-26	33%	-2.6	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	+0.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Texas State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=140
Texas State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Texas State — combinations

0 lean Texas State · 30 lean against

Read this first. 36 combinations shown. The best one here is 48%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-30	48%from 45%	0.0	n=58
on the road + in a conference game	21-24	47%from 46%	-1.2	n=45
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-24	47%from 47%	-1.2	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 47%	-2.6	n=20
+ in October	5-14	26%from 47%	-3.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 47%	-2.6	n=20
+ in October	5-14	26%from 47%	-3.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 26%	-6.2	n=9
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 46%	-1.8	n=28
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	31-36	46%from 46%	-1.3	n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 46%	-1.8	n=28
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-7	36%from 46%	+2.5	n=11
+ in October	5-15	25%from 46%	-3.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 25%	-6.2	n=9
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	18-22	45%from 43%	-1.6	n=40
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	39-49	44%from 43%	-2.0	n=88
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-22	45%from 44%	-1.6	n=40
+ in October	11-24	31%from 44%	-3.0	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 31%	-4.0	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	6-9	40%from 45%	+2.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 40%	+6.2	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 40%	+6.2	n=5
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	4-7	36%from 46%	+2.5	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in October	12-25	32%from 45%	-2.8	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 32%	-4.0	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

San Diego State — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	36-35	51%	-0.5	n=71
in a conference game	54-39	58%	+1.5	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	77-59	57%	+1.5	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	13-13	50%	+1.8	n=26
vs the Pac-12	8-10	44%	-0.7	n=18
in October	27-16	63%	+2.7	n=43
at this venue	13-12	52%	+1.3	n=25
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	-0.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

San Diego State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +6.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=146

San Diego State — combinations

45 lean San Diego State · 21 lean against

Read this first. 82 combinations shown. The best one here is 65%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in October	26-14	65%from 58%	+3.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 65%	+0.4	n=16
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 63%	+1.2	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in October	27-16	63%from 57%	+2.7	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 63%	+1.2	n=17
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=5
in October + at this venue	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=5
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	54-39	58%from 58%	+1.5	n=93
+ in October	26-14	65%from 58%	+3.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 65%	+0.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 58%	-0.9	n=39
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 58%	+1.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 53%	+1.3	n=15
at home + in October	10-8	56%from 51%	+0.1	n=18
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 56%	-1.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 56%	-1.4	n=7
at home + in a conference game	26-21	55%from 51%	-0.2	n=47
+ in October	9-7	56%from 55%	-0.5	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 56%	-3.9	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	26-21	55%from 55%	-0.2	n=47
+ in October	9-7	56%from 55%	-0.5	n=16
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 55%	+1.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 55%	-0.5	n=20
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 55%	+1.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 53%	+1.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 55%	-0.5	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.