Boise State at Fresno State—

ST Model Fresno State -0.7

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Boise State — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	37-27	58%	+1.6	n=64
vs Fresno State	3-8	27%	-4.4	n=11
in a conference game	54-42	56%	+0.8	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	76-66	54%	+0.1	n=142
vs a P5 opponent	12-19	39%	-4.2	n=31
vs the Pac-12	4-7	36%	-3.9	n=11
in October	27-14	66%	+2.3	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	37-28	57%	+0.5	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Boise State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Boise State — combinations

30 lean Boise State · 17 lean against

Read this first. 55 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	13-3	81%from 66%	+4.8	n=16
on the road + in October	14-5	74%from 58%	+2.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 74%	+3.8	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + in October	4-2	67%from 39%	+4.2	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + in October	27-14	66%from 54%	+2.3	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-3	81%from 66%	+4.8	n=16
in a conference game + in October	23-12	66%from 56%	+2.0	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-3	79%from 66%	+4.4	n=14
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	25-14	64%from 56%	+2.3	n=39
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-1.5	n=5
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	37-27	58%from 58%	+1.6	n=64
+ in October	14-5	74%from 58%	+2.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 74%	+3.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-1.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-13	54%from 58%	-0.1	n=28
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	35-26	57%from 54%	+0.3	n=61
on the road + in a conference game	25-19	57%from 58%	+2.6	n=44
+ in October	11-4	73%from 57%	+2.1	n=15
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-19	57%from 57%	+2.6	n=44
+ in October	11-4	73%from 57%	+2.1	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 57%	+3.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 57%	+3.9	n=18
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	54-42	56%from 56%	+0.8	n=96
+ in October	23-12	66%from 56%	+2.0	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-3	79%from 66%	+4.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-14	64%from 56%	+2.3	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Fresno State — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
vs Boise State	8-3	73%	+4.4	n=11
in a conference game	48-44	52%	-0.9	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	69-64	52%	-0.4	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	14-14	50%	-1.2	n=28
vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%	+4.2	n=14
in October	19-23	45%	-1.4	n=42
at this venue	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.7	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Fresno State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=140
Fresno State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Fresno State — combinations

30 lean Fresno State · 33 lean against

Read this first. 82 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 79% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Boise State + in a conference game	8-3	73%from 73%	+4.4	n=11
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+4.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 73%	+4.1	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 73%	+4.1	n=5
vs Boise State + vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+4.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 73%	+4.1	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%from 52%	+4.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%from 50%	+4.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	9-5	64%from 50%	+3.2	n=14
vs the Pac-12 + in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
vs Boise State + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 73%	+4.1	n=5
at home + at this venue	33-30	52%from 52%	+0.6	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-16	47%from 52%	-0.0	n=30
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	48-44	52%from 52%	-0.9	n=92
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 52%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ in October	19-21	48%from 52%	-0.6	n=40
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 48%	-0.0	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-11	31%from 48%	-2.5	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-22	44%from 52%	-2.1	n=39
at home + in a conference game	22-21	51%from 52%	-2.2	n=43
+ in October	11-10	52%from 51%	-0.0	n=21
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 52%	-0.0	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 52%	-2.0	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in October	11-10	52%from 51%	-0.0	n=21
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.