How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Boise State — the basics
148 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 37-27 | 58% | +1.6 | n=64 |
| vs Colorado State | 8-3 | 73% | +3.9 | n=11 |
| in a conference game | 54-42 | 56% | +0.8 | n=96 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 76-66 | 54% | +0.1 | n=142 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 12-19 | 39% | -4.2 | n=31 |
| vs the Pac-12 | 4-7 | 36% | -3.9 | n=11 |
| in November | 23-25 | 48% | -0.7 | n=48 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 37-28 | 57% | +0.5 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Boise State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 148 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=148 |
Boise State — combinations
26 lean Boise State · 20 lean against
Read this first. 54 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado State + in a conference game | 8-3 | 73%from 73% | +3.9 | n=11 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 73% | +3.9 | n=11 |
| vs Colorado State + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 73% | +3.9 | n=11 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 25-14 | 64%from 56% | +2.3 | n=39 |
| on the road + vs Colorado State | 3-2 | 60%from 58% | +2.3 | n=5 |
| + in a conference game | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +2.3 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +2.3 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +2.3 | n=5 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 7-5 | 58%from 58% | +0.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 58% | -1.5 | n=5 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 37-27 | 58%from 58% | +1.6 | n=64 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-5 | 58%from 58% | +0.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 58% | -1.5 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-13 | 54%from 58% | -0.1 | n=28 |
| + in November | 10-12 | 45%from 58% | +3.3 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-6 | 40%from 45% | +2.7 | n=10 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 35-26 | 57%from 54% | +0.3 | n=61 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 25-19 | 57%from 58% | +2.6 | n=44 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 25-19 | 57%from 57% | +2.6 | n=44 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 57% | +3.9 | n=18 |
| + in November | 10-12 | 45%from 57% | +3.3 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 57% | +3.9 | n=18 |
| + in November | 10-12 | 45%from 57% | +3.3 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-6 | 40%from 45% | +2.7 | n=10 |
| in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent | 54-42 | 56%from 56% | +0.8 | n=96 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 25-14 | 64%from 56% | +2.3 | n=39 |
| + in November | 23-21 | 52%from 56% | +0.5 | n=44 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-9 | 53%from 52% | -0.1 | n=19 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.