How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Fresno State — the basics
140 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 37-33 | 53% | -0.5 | n=70 |
| in a conference game | 48-44 | 52% | -0.9 | n=92 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-64 | 52% | -0.4 | n=133 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 14-14 | 50% | -1.2 | n=28 |
| vs the Pac-12 | 9-5 | 64% | +4.2 | n=14 |
| in November | 23-19 | 55% | -0.2 | n=42 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 33-32 | 51% | +0.7 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Fresno State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game | n=140 |
| Fresno State has covered 2 straight | n=2 |
Fresno State — combinations
40 lean Fresno State · 4 lean against
Read this first. 53 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs the Pac-12 | 7-2 | 78%from 53% | +5.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +9.1 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Pac-12 | 9-5 | 64%from 52% | +4.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 64% | +6.8 | n=8 |
| vs a P5 opponent + vs the Pac-12 | 9-5 | 64%from 50% | +4.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 64% | +6.8 | n=8 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 9-5 | 64%from 50% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| vs the Pac-12 + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 64% | +6.8 | n=8 |
| on the road + in November | 12-8 | 60%from 53% | +3.4 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 60% | +3.7 | n=9 |
| in November + in the last 5 seasons | 11-8 | 58%from 55% | +0.3 | n=19 |
| in a conference game + in November | 22-17 | 56%from 52% | +0.3 | n=39 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 56% | +0.3 | n=18 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 11-9 | 55%from 53% | -1.6 | n=20 |
| + vs the Pac-12 | 7-2 | 78%from 55% | +5.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +9.1 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-3 | 70%from 55% | +1.8 | n=10 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in November | 23-19 | 55%from 52% | -0.2 | n=42 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-8 | 58%from 55% | +0.3 | n=19 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 16-14 | 53%from 53% | +0.1 | n=30 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 26-23 | 53%from 53% | +0.2 | n=49 |
| + in November | 11-7 | 61%from 53% | +4.8 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 61% | +4.1 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 26-23 | 53%from 53% | +0.2 | n=49 |
| + in November | 11-7 | 61%from 53% | +4.8 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-11 | 45%from 53% | -0.8 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-11 | 45%from 53% | -0.8 | n=20 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.