Colorado State at Fresno State—

ST Model Fresno State -12

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Colorado State — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-30	49%	+0.5	n=59
vs Fresno State	3-3	50%	+8.3	n=6
in a conference game	40-49	45%	-0.7	n=89
vs an FBS opponent	56-70	44%	-2.0	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	10-15	40%	-5.9	n=25
vs the Pac-12	3-9	25%	-11.5	n=12
in November	21-23	48%	+0.8	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	25-35	42%	-3.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Colorado State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -8.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Colorado State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Colorado State — combinations

4 lean Colorado State · 33 lean against

Read this first. 50 combinations shown. The best one here is 58%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 63% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 49%	-0.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 58%	-0.9	n=7
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=28
vs Fresno State + in a conference game	3-3	50%from 50%	+8.3	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+8.3	n=6
vs Fresno State + vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+8.3	n=6
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	29-30	49%from 49%	+0.5	n=59
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 49%	-0.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 58%	-0.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=28
+ in November	9-13	41%from 49%	-0.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 41%	-0.2	n=10
in a conference game + in November	21-23	48%from 45%	+0.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-13	35%from 48%	-3.9	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + in November	21-23	48%from 44%	+0.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-13	35%from 48%	-3.9	n=20
on the road + in a conference game	20-24	45%from 49%	+0.1	n=44
+ vs an FBS opponent	20-24	45%from 45%	+0.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 45%	-2.8	n=19
+ in November	9-13	41%from 45%	-0.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 45%	-2.8	n=19
+ in November	9-13	41%from 45%	-0.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 41%	-0.2	n=10
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	40-49	45%from 45%	-0.7	n=89
+ in November	21-23	48%from 45%	+0.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-13	35%from 48%	-3.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-22	44%from 45%	-2.0	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Fresno State — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
vs Colorado State	3-3	50%	-8.3	n=6
in a conference game	48-44	52%	-0.9	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	69-64	52%	-0.4	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	14-14	50%	-1.2	n=28
vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%	+4.2	n=14
in November	23-19	55%	-0.2	n=42
at this venue	33-30	52%	+0.6	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.7	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Fresno State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=140
Fresno State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Fresno State — combinations

37 lean Fresno State · 19 lean against

Read this first. 78 combinations shown. The best one here is 64%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%from 52%	+4.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Pac-12	9-5	64%from 50%	+4.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	9-5	64%from 50%	+3.2	n=14
vs the Pac-12 + in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 64%	+6.8	n=8
in November + in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 55%	+0.3	n=19
in a conference game + in November	22-17	56%from 52%	+0.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 56%	+0.3	n=18
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 56%	-3.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 52%	-2.8	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-19	55%from 52%	-0.2	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 55%	+0.3	n=19
+ at this venue	11-11	50%from 55%	-3.5	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 50%	-2.8	n=10
at home + at this venue	33-30	52%from 52%	+0.6	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-16	47%from 52%	-0.0	n=30
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	48-44	52%from 52%	-0.9	n=92
+ in November	22-17	56%from 52%	+0.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 56%	+0.3	n=18
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 56%	-3.5	n=21
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 52%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-22	44%from 52%	-2.1	n=39
at home + in a conference game	22-21	51%from 52%	-2.2	n=43
+ in November	11-10	52%from 51%	-3.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 52%	-2.8	n=10
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 52%	-3.5	n=21
+ vs an FBS opponent	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in November	11-10	52%from 51%	-3.5	n=21
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ at this venue	22-21	51%from 51%	-2.2	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 51%	-3.5	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.