How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
UConn — the basics
127 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 25-32 | 44% | -1.6 | n=57 |
| out of conference | 37-42 | 47% | -0.3 | n=79 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 51-66 | 44% | -1.0 | n=117 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 38-50 | 43% | -1.1 | n=88 |
| in September | 13-24 | 35% | -1.3 | n=37 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 35-25 | 58% | +2.5 | n=60 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
UConn — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +3.3 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 127 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game | n=127 |
| UConn has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
UConn — combinations
13 lean UConn · 29 lean against
Read this first. 54 combinations shown. The best one here is 59%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 34-24 | 59%from 47% | +2.5 | n=58 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 20-15 | 57%from 43% | +3.7 | n=35 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 30-24 | 56%from 44% | +1.8 | n=54 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 14-13 | 52%from 44% | -1.3 | n=27 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 9-9 | 50%from 35% | +2.4 | n=18 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 20-22 | 48%from 47% | +0.8 | n=42 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 20-15 | 57%from 48% | +3.7 | n=35 |
| + in September | 6-9 | 40%from 48% | +0.6 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 40% | +6.2 | n=11 |
| on the road + out of conference | 15-17 | 47%from 44% | -2.7 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-12 | 52%from 47% | -1.8 | n=25 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 15-17 | 47%from 47% | -2.7 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-12 | 52%from 47% | -1.8 | n=25 |
| + in September | 4-6 | 40%from 47% | -3.6 | n=10 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-8 | 38%from 47% | -3.6 | n=13 |
| + in September | 4-6 | 40%from 47% | -3.6 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 40% | -3.1 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-8 | 38%from 47% | -3.6 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-7 | 42%from 38% | -2.2 | n=12 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 32-37 | 46%from 47% | -0.1 | n=69 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 29-23 | 56%from 46% | +1.7 | n=52 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 15-17 | 47%from 46% | +1.6 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-14 | 52%from 47% | +2.6 | n=29 |
| + in September | 4-6 | 40%from 47% | +2.3 | n=10 |
| + in September | 9-15 | 38%from 46% | -0.2 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-8 | 47%from 38% | +1.3 | n=15 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.