Arkansas State at MemphisMemphis -10.5o/u 55.5

ST Model Memphis -9.6(-0.9 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Arkansas State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	40-30	57%	-0.3	n=70
as an underdog	39-32	55%	-0.2	n=71
spread 7.5-10.5	11-11	50%	+2.8	n=22
out of conference	24-29	45%	-2.3	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	74-62	54%	+0.5	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	73-56	57%	+1.5	n=129
vs the American Athletic	6-4	60%	-0.8	n=10
in September	20-24	45%	-2.4	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	34-27	56%	-0.1	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=147
Arkansas State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas State — combinations

120 lean Arkansas State · 35 lean against

Read this first. 176 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs the American Athletic	5-1	83%from 57%	+2.9	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 83%	+1.2	n=5
as an underdog + vs the American Athletic	5-2	71%from 55%	-0.9	n=7
+ in September	5-2	71%from 71%	-0.9	n=7
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	35-21	63%from 57%	+1.4	n=56
+ vs the American Athletic	5-1	83%from 63%	+2.9	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 83%	+1.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 63%	-1.7	n=23
+ in September	7-6	54%from 63%	-0.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 54%	-2.0	n=5
vs the American Athletic + in September	5-3	63%from 60%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.5	n=5
out of conference + vs the American Athletic	6-4	60%from 45%	-0.8	n=10
+ in September	5-3	63%from 60%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.5	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs the American Athletic	6-4	60%from 54%	-0.8	n=10
+ in September	5-3	63%from 60%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.5	n=5
vs a G5 opponent + vs the American Athletic	6-4	60%from 57%	-0.8	n=10
+ in September	5-3	63%from 60%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 63%	-1.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.5	n=5
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Memphis — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	39-36	52%	+2.4	n=75
as a favorite	54-52	51%	+2.6	n=106
spread 7.5-10.5	15-11	58%	+1.6	n=26
out of conference	27-23	54%	+3.4	n=50
vs an FBS opponent	67-67	50%	+1.8	n=134
vs a G5 opponent	62-63	50%	+1.8	n=125
vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%	+1.5	n=11
in September	19-21	48%	+1.4	n=40
at this venue	40-36	53%	+2.6	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	+1.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Memphis — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Memphis has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Memphis — combinations

74 lean Memphis · 161 lean against

Read this first. 277 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 78% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 7.5-10.5 + out of conference	6-1	86%from 58%	+11.5	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-1	86%from 86%	+11.5	n=7
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 55%	+6.1	n=6
spread 7.5-10.5 + at this venue	7-4	64%from 58%	+0.7	n=11
at home + spread 7.5-10.5	6-4	60%from 52%	-1.3	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=10
+ at this venue	6-4	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-4	56%from 60%	-4.0	n=9
+ at this venue	6-4	60%from 60%	-1.3	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-4	56%from 60%	-4.0	n=9
+ at this venue	5-4	56%from 56%	-4.0	n=9
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs an FBS opponent	15-11	58%from 58%	+1.6	n=26
+ at this venue	7-4	64%from 58%	+0.7	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 58%	+3.9	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	12-10	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=22
+ at this venue	5-4	56%from 55%	-4.0	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	+1.8	n=8
as a favorite + spread 7.5-10.5	12-9	57%from 51%	+1.1	n=21
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-9	57%from 57%	+1.1	n=21
+ vs a G5 opponent	11-9	55%from 57%	+0.1	n=20
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 57%	-5.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 57%	+2.9	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	11-9	55%from 57%	+0.1	n=20
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 55%	-5.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 55%	+2.9	n=6
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 57%	-5.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 57%	+2.9	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.