Florida International at South FloridaSouth Florida -12.5o/u 54.5

ST Model South Florida -22.9(+10.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida International — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-31	47%	-2.3	n=58
as an underdog	46-47	49%	-1.3	n=93
spread 11-14	10-7	59%	+3.2	n=17
out of conference	23-24	49%	-0.7	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	61-65	48%	-1.3	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	51-65	44%	-2.4	n=116
vs the American Athletic	4-6	40%	-7.9	n=10
in September	19-21	48%	-1.4	n=40
in the last 5 seasons	29-32	48%	-3.3	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida International — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=136

Florida International — combinations

69 lean Florida International · 60 lean against

Read this first. 152 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + spread 11-14	6-3	67%from 47%	+4.3	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.9	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.9	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.9	n=5
spread 11-14 + vs an FBS opponent	9-5	64%from 59%	+3.6	n=14
+ in September	4-1	80%from 64%	+5.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	8-5	62%from 64%	+3.6	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 62%	+2.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 64%	+2.2	n=6
on the road + in September	10-6	63%from 47%	+1.0	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 63%	-7.8	n=7
spread 11-14 + in September	5-3	63%from 59%	+3.9	n=8
as an underdog + spread 11-14	8-5	62%from 49%	+1.8	n=13
+ in September	4-1	80%from 62%	+5.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-5	62%from 62%	+1.8	n=13
+ in September	4-1	80%from 62%	+5.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-5	58%from 62%	+1.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 62%	+2.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-5	58%from 62%	+1.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 58%	+2.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 62%	+2.2	n=6
vs the American Athletic + in September	3-2	60%from 40%	-0.9	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

South Florida — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	35-33	51%	-0.5	n=68
as a favorite	30-33	48%	-0.7	n=63
spread 11-14	13-11	54%	+1.7	n=24
out of conference	26-22	54%	-0.3	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	69-61	53%	+0.2	n=130
vs a G5 opponent	54-55	50%	+0.1	n=109
in September	24-19	56%	-0.6	n=43
at this venue	35-33	51%	-0.5	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	32-28	53%	+2.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

South Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=140

South Florida — combinations

108 lean South Florida · 53 lean against

Read this first. 185 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as a favorite + in September	11-7	61%from 48%	+3.0	n=18
+ at this venue	8-6	57%from 61%	+2.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 61%	+0.5	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + in September	20-14	59%from 53%	-0.6	n=34
+ at this venue	9-6	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	+1.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 59%	-0.2	n=16
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	22-16	58%from 54%	+0.3	n=38
+ at this venue	9-6	60%from 58%	-0.5	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	+4.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 58%	+3.6	n=17
+ in September	15-11	58%from 58%	-0.7	n=26
+ at this venue	6-4	60%from 58%	-1.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 58%	-0.4	n=13
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-4	43%from 58%	+3.2	n=7
spread 11-14 + vs a G5 opponent	11-8	58%from 54%	+3.0	n=19
+ at this venue	5-3	63%from 58%	+4.6	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 58%	+3.1	n=7
at home + in the last 5 seasons	15-11	58%from 51%	+3.8	n=26
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	15-11	58%from 51%	+3.8	n=26
at home + spread 11-14	5-4	56%from 51%	+2.2	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 56%	+4.6	n=8
+ at this venue	5-3	63%from 63%	+4.6	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-4	56%from 56%	+2.2	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 56%	+4.6	n=8
+ at this venue	5-4	56%from 56%	+2.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	5-4	56%from 56%	+2.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	-0.8	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	-0.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.