Navy at UAB—

ST Model Navy -11.9

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Navy — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-25	58%	+1.6	n=60
in a conference game	56-34	62%	+4.6	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	74-65	53%	+1.3	n=139
vs a G5 opponent	67-52	56%	+2.4	n=119
vs the American Athletic	57-34	63%	+4.5	n=91
in September	18-18	50%	-2.2	n=36
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	+1.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Navy — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=146

Navy — combinations

87 lean Navy · 2 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 5.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in September	11-4	73%from 58%	+3.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 73%	+12.7	n=5
on the road + vs the American Athletic	30-14	68%from 58%	+4.7	n=44
+ in September	9-3	75%from 68%	+5.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 75%	+12.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 68%	+4.2	n=20
on the road + in a conference game	29-14	67%from 58%	+4.7	n=43
+ in September	8-3	73%from 67%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 73%	+12.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 67%	+4.2	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ in September	8-3	73%from 67%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 67%	+4.2	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ vs the American Athletic	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ vs a G5 opponent	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ in September	8-3	73%from 67%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 67%	+4.2	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ vs the American Athletic	29-14	67%from 67%	+4.7	n=43
+ in September	8-3	73%from 67%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 67%	+4.2	n=20
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-9	64%from 58%	+3.8	n=25
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	34-20	63%from 58%	+2.3	n=54
+ in September	11-4	73%from 63%	+3.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 73%	+12.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-6	73%from 63%	+5.1	n=22
+ vs the American Athletic	30-14	68%from 63%	+4.7	n=44
+ in September	9-3	75%from 68%	+5.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 68%	+4.2	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UAB — the basics

123 graded games since 2014

at home	32-22	59%	+2.4	n=54
in a conference game	44-34	56%	+1.7	n=78
vs an FBS opponent	60-54	53%	+0.5	n=114
vs a G5 opponent	60-47	56%	+1.1	n=107
vs the American Athletic	12-14	46%	-0.1	n=26
in September	20-14	59%	-0.5	n=34
at this venue	14-12	54%	+1.7	n=26
in the last 5 seasons	29-33	47%	-1.4	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UAB — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 123 graded games: +0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=123

UAB — combinations

61 lean UAB · 22 lean against

Read this first. 127 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the American Athletic + in September	4-1	80%from 46%	+3.6	n=5
in a conference game + in September	5-3	63%from 56%	-0.8	n=8
at home + in a conference game	23-14	62%from 59%	+3.6	n=37
+ vs an FBS opponent	23-14	62%from 62%	+3.6	n=37
+ vs a G5 opponent	23-14	62%from 62%	+3.6	n=37
+ at this venue	10-8	56%from 62%	+2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 62%	+1.9	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	6-6	50%from 62%	+2.5	n=12
+ vs a G5 opponent	23-14	62%from 62%	+3.6	n=37
+ at this venue	10-8	56%from 62%	+2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 62%	+1.9	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	6-6	50%from 62%	+2.5	n=12
+ at this venue	10-8	56%from 62%	+2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 56%	+2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 62%	+1.9	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	6-6	50%from 62%	+2.5	n=12
+ at this venue	6-6	50%from 50%	+2.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 50%	+2.5	n=12
at home + vs a G5 opponent	32-20	62%from 59%	+3.0	n=52
+ in September	8-5	62%from 62%	-1.4	n=13
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 62%	-3.9	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 62%	-3.9	n=6
+ at this venue	14-11	56%from 62%	+1.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-11	56%from 56%	+1.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-12	56%from 62%	+1.1	n=27
+ vs the American Athletic	7-6	54%from 62%	+3.1	n=13
+ at this venue	6-6	50%from 54%	+2.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 54%	+2.5	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.