How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Southern Miss — the basics
146 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 34-34 | 50% | -0.2 | n=68 |
| out of conference | 23-30 | 43% | -2.4 | n=53 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 61-73 | 46% | -1.9 | n=134 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 63-62 | 50% | -1.1 | n=125 |
| vs the American Athletic | 1-4 | 20% | -11.8 | n=5 |
| in September | 23-24 | 49% | -1.2 | n=47 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 27-34 | 44% | -2.9 | n=61 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Southern Miss — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 146 graded games: -1.3 pts vs their number per game | n=146 |
| Southern Miss has failed to cover 5 straight | n=5 |
Southern Miss — combinations
15 lean Southern Miss · 36 lean against
Read this first. 63 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in September | 10-8 | 56%from 50% | +0.2 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-6 | 25%from 56% | -10.1 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs a G5 opponent | 29-24 | 55%from 50% | +0.3 | n=53 |
| + in September | 5-4 | 56%from 55% | -2.5 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 1-4 | 20%from 56% | -11.9 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-13 | 43%from 55% | -3.7 | n=23 |
| out of conference + in September | 20-18 | 53%from 43% | -0.7 | n=38 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-8 | 53%from 53% | -1.8 | n=17 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 34-34 | 50%from 50% | -0.2 | n=68 |
| + in September | 10-8 | 56%from 50% | +0.2 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-6 | 25%from 56% | -10.1 | n=8 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 29-24 | 55%from 50% | +0.3 | n=53 |
| + in September | 5-4 | 56%from 55% | -2.5 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-13 | 43%from 55% | -3.7 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-17 | 39%from 50% | -4.1 | n=28 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 16-16 | 50%from 43% | -2.2 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-7 | 53%from 50% | -1.1 | n=15 |
| + in September | 13-13 | 50%from 50% | -2.1 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-6 | 54%from 50% | -0.8 | n=13 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 1-4 | 20%from 50% | -11.8 | n=5 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 49% | -1.6 | n=20 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent | 54-59 | 48%from 46% | -1.8 | n=113 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 20-29 | 41%from 48% | -4.0 | n=49 |
| + in September | 8-17 | 32%from 48% | -6.2 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 32% | -5.5 | n=11 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 1-4 | 20%from 48% | -11.8 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.