Navy at Air Force

ST Model Air Force -0.2
Trends · 2026 week 5
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Navy — the basics
146 graded games since 2014
on the road35-2558%+1.6n=60
vs Air Force4-833%-5.1n=12
out of conference21-3538%-3.9n=56
vs an FBS opponent74-6553%+1.3n=139
vs a G5 opponent67-5256%+2.4n=119
vs the Mountain West4-931%-7.1n=13
in October21-2348%+2.2n=44
at this venue2-433%-9.8n=6
in the last 5 seasons32-3052%+1.1n=62
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Navy — form & streaks
Last 12 games: -0.7 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 146 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per gamen=146
Navy — combinations
23 lean Navy · 170 lean against
Read this first. 203 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 74% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons16-964%from 58%+3.8n=25
on the road + vs a G5 opponent34-2063%from 58%+2.3n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons16-673%from 63%+5.1n=22
+ in October9-756%from 63%-0.8n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons5-271%from 56%+6.2n=7
+ at this venue2-433%from 56%-9.8n=6
+ at this venue2-433%from 63%-9.8n=6
+ vs the Mountain West2-529%from 63%-12.9n=7
+ in October2-433%from 29%-9.8n=6
+ at this venue2-433%from 29%-9.8n=6
on the road + vs an FBS opponent35-2558%from 58%+1.6n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons16-964%from 58%+3.8n=25
+ vs a G5 opponent34-2063%from 58%+2.3n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons16-673%from 63%+5.1n=22
+ in October9-756%from 63%-0.8n=16
+ at this venue2-433%from 63%-9.8n=6
+ vs the Mountain West2-529%from 63%-12.9n=7
+ in October9-853%from 58%-0.8n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons5-271%from 53%+6.2n=7
+ at this venue2-433%from 53%-9.8n=6
+ at this venue2-433%from 58%-9.8n=6
+ vs the Mountain West2-529%from 58%-12.9n=7
+ in October2-433%from 29%-9.8n=6
+ at this venue2-433%from 29%-9.8n=6
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent64-4857%from 53%+2.5n=112
+ in the last 5 seasons28-2157%from 57%+2.5n=49
+ in October21-2051%from 57%+3.0n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons10-856%from 51%+5.7n=18
+ at this venue2-433%from 51%-9.8n=6
+ at this venue2-433%from 57%-9.8n=6
+ vs the Mountain West4-931%from 57%-7.1n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons2-340%from 31%+0.6n=5
+ in October4-736%from 31%-4.3n=11
+ at this venue2-433%from 31%-9.8n=6
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.