UTSA at Tulane—

ST Model Tulane -5.6

Trends · 2026 week 8

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UTSA — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-36	49%	-1.7	n=71
in a conference game	48-47	51%	+0.6	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-71	50%	+0.2	n=141
vs a G5 opponent	64-62	51%	+0.5	n=126
vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%	+5.4	n=27
in October	22-23	49%	+0.9	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	37-30	55%	+1.7	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UTSA — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

UTSA — combinations

55 lean UTSA · 24 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%from 50%	+5.4	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
+ in October	6-5	55%from 67%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+4.3	n=11
vs a G5 opponent + vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%from 51%	+5.4	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
+ in October	6-5	55%from 67%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+4.3	n=11
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
in a conference game + vs the American Athletic	15-9	63%from 51%	+4.4	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-9	63%from 63%	+4.4	n=24
+ in October	6-5	55%from 63%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+4.3	n=11
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	26-16	62%from 51%	+4.1	n=42
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-25	58%from 51%	+2.4	n=59
on the road + in October	12-10	55%from 49%	+1.0	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 55%	-2.1	n=9
vs the American Athletic + in October	6-5	55%from 67%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+4.3	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-29	54%from 50%	+1.6	n=63
in a conference game + in October	21-20	51%from 51%	+1.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 51%	+5.0	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	60-58	51%from 50%	+0.5	n=118
+ vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%from 51%	+5.4	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
+ in October	6-5	55%from 67%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	31-24	56%from 51%	+2.4	n=55
+ in October	21-22	49%from 51%	+0.4	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 49%	+3.9	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Tulane — the basics

151 graded games since 2014

at home	44-31	59%	+3.0	n=75
in a conference game	53-43	55%	+0.4	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	76-66	54%	+0.3	n=142
vs a G5 opponent	70-52	57%	+1.6	n=122
vs the American Athletic	54-43	56%	+0.6	n=97
in October	23-18	56%	-1.2	n=41
at this venue	43-31	58%	+3.0	n=74
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	+1.3	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Tulane — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 151 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=151

Tulane — combinations

108 lean Tulane · 32 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in October	11-7	61%from 59%	+2.7	n=18
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+2.7	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	-1.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	-1.6	n=7
in October + at this venue	11-7	61%from 56%	+2.7	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	-1.6	n=7
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-22	58%from 57%	+1.9	n=53
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	25-18	58%from 56%	+1.7	n=43
at home + at this venue	43-31	58%from 59%	+3.0	n=74
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-16	52%from 58%	+2.6	n=33
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	24-18	57%from 55%	+1.4	n=42
at home + vs a G5 opponent	37-28	57%from 59%	+3.1	n=65
+ in October	11-7	61%from 57%	+2.7	n=18
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+2.7	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	-1.6	n=7
+ at this venue	36-28	56%from 57%	+3.1	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 56%	+2.3	n=28
+ vs the American Athletic	26-24	52%from 57%	+1.5	n=50
+ in October	11-7	61%from 52%	+2.7	n=18
+ at this venue	26-24	52%from 52%	+1.5	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 52%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-15	48%from 57%	+2.2	n=29
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	36-28	56%from 57%	+3.1	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 56%	+2.3	n=28
vs an FBS opponent + in October	23-18	56%from 54%	-1.2	n=41
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 56%	+2.7	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	-1.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 56%	-2.0	n=16

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.