UTSA at Florida Atlantic—

ST Model UTSA -7.9

Trends · 2026 week 10

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UTSA — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-36	49%	-1.7	n=71
vs Florida Atlantic	3-2	60%	+3.4	n=5
in a conference game	48-47	51%	+0.6	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-71	50%	+0.2	n=141
vs a G5 opponent	64-62	51%	+0.5	n=126
vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%	+5.4	n=27
in November	25-22	53%	+0.6	n=47
in the last 5 seasons	37-30	55%	+1.7	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UTSA — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

UTSA — combinations

73 lean UTSA · 17 lean against

Read this first. 106 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the American Athletic + in November	9-3	75%from 67%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 75%	+5.4	n=12
vs an FBS opponent + vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%from 50%	+5.4	n=27
+ in November	9-3	75%from 67%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 75%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
vs a G5 opponent + vs the American Athletic	18-9	67%from 51%	+5.4	n=27
+ in November	9-3	75%from 67%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 75%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 67%	+4.3	n=26
in November + in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 53%	+2.9	n=20
in a conference game + vs the American Athletic	15-9	63%from 51%	+4.4	n=24
+ in November	9-3	75%from 63%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 75%	+5.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-9	63%from 63%	+4.4	n=24
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	26-16	62%from 51%	+4.1	n=42
vs Florida Atlantic + in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
vs Florida Atlantic + vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
vs Florida Atlantic + vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=5
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-25	58%from 51%	+2.4	n=59

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Florida Atlantic — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	32-38	46%	+0.8	n=70
vs UTSA	2-3	40%	-3.4	n=5
in a conference game	47-48	49%	+0.3	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	63-69	48%	-0.2	n=132
vs a G5 opponent	58-64	48%	+0.7	n=122
vs the American Athletic	13-17	43%	-0.7	n=30
in November	20-26	43%	-1.3	n=46
at this venue	32-38	46%	+0.8	n=70
in the last 5 seasons	25-33	43%	-1.6	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida Atlantic — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=139

Florida Atlantic — combinations

0 lean Florida Atlantic · 161 lean against

Read this first. 170 combinations shown. The best one here is 49%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	47-48	49%from 49%	+0.3	n=95
+ vs a G5 opponent	47-48	49%from 49%	+0.3	n=95
+ at this venue	23-26	47%from 49%	-0.5	n=49
+ vs the American Athletic	10-13	43%from 49%	-1.8	n=23
+ in November	18-25	42%from 49%	-1.7	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.9	n=39
+ at this venue	23-26	47%from 49%	-0.5	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 47%	-4.2	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	10-13	43%from 49%	-1.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-13	43%from 43%	-1.8	n=23
+ at this venue	4-8	33%from 43%	-9.7	n=12
+ in November	3-8	27%from 43%	-5.1	n=11
+ in November	18-25	42%from 49%	-1.7	n=43
+ at this venue	7-14	33%from 42%	-5.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-13	28%from 42%	-7.0	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.9	n=39
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	47-48	49%from 49%	+0.3	n=95
+ at this venue	23-26	47%from 49%	-0.5	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 47%	-4.2	n=20
+ vs the American Athletic	10-13	43%from 49%	-1.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-13	43%from 43%	-1.8	n=23
+ at this venue	4-8	33%from 43%	-9.7	n=12
+ in November	3-8	27%from 43%	-5.1	n=11
+ in November	18-25	42%from 49%	-1.7	n=43
+ at this venue	7-14	33%from 42%	-5.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-13	28%from 42%	-7.0	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.9	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.