How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
South Florida — the basics
140 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 36-28 | 56% | +0.7 | n=64 |
| vs East Carolina | 4-5 | 44% | -1.7 | n=9 |
| in a conference game | 47-45 | 51% | +0.2 | n=92 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-61 | 53% | +0.2 | n=130 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 54-55 | 50% | +0.1 | n=109 |
| vs the American Athletic | 47-45 | 51% | +0.2 | n=92 |
| in November | 26-19 | 58% | +2.0 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 32-28 | 53% | +2.0 | n=60 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
South Florida — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +8.6 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 140 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game | n=140 |
South Florida — combinations
82 lean South Florida · 14 lean against
Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in November + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 58% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| on the road + in November | 14-10 | 58%from 56% | +0.7 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 58% | -0.1 | n=11 |
| in a conference game + in November | 26-19 | 58%from 51% | +2.0 | n=45 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 58% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in November | 26-19 | 58%from 53% | +2.0 | n=45 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 58% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in November | 26-19 | 58%from 50% | +2.0 | n=45 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 58% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| vs the American Athletic + in November | 26-19 | 58%from 51% | +2.0 | n=45 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 58% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 36-28 | 56%from 56% | +0.7 | n=64 |
| + in November | 14-10 | 58%from 56% | +0.7 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 58% | -0.1 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 16-14 | 53%from 56% | +0.3 | n=30 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 25-22 | 53%from 56% | +0.8 | n=47 |
| + in November | 14-10 | 58%from 53% | +0.7 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 53% | +0.1 | n=20 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 26-23 | 53%from 56% | +1.0 | n=49 |
| + in November | 14-10 | 58%from 53% | +0.7 | n=24 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 25-22 | 53%from 53% | +0.8 | n=47 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-11 | 50%from 53% | +0.6 | n=22 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 31-25 | 55%from 53% | +2.4 | n=56 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 21-18 | 54%from 51% | +1.8 | n=39 |
| vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons | 21-18 | 54%from 51% | +1.8 | n=39 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.