How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Air Force — the basics
141 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 36-27 | 57% | +1.4 | n=63 |
| vs Army | 4-8 | 33% | -5.5 | n=12 |
| out of conference | 32-20 | 62% | +3.0 | n=52 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-62 | 53% | +1.6 | n=131 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 63-56 | 53% | +1.8 | n=119 |
| vs the American Athletic | 8-5 | 62% | +3.6 | n=13 |
| in November | 26-22 | 54% | +1.7 | n=48 |
| at this venue | 4-1 | 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 32-31 | 51% | +0.2 | n=63 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Air Force — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 141 graded games: +1.7 pts vs their number per game | n=141 |
Air Force — combinations
78 lean Air Force · 18 lean against
Read this first. 106 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs Army | 4-1 | 80%from 57% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + out of conference | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| on the road + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 57% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| vs Army + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 33% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| out of conference + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 62% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 53% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| on the road + out of conference | 13-5 | 72%from 57% | +2.6 | n=18 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 72% | +5.7 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 72% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 72% | +0.6 | n=9 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 5-2 | 71%from 78% | +0.5 | n=7 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 13-5 | 72%from 72% | +2.6 | n=18 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 72% | +5.7 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 4-1 | 80%from 72% | +5.1 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 72% | +0.6 | n=9 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 5-2 | 71%from 72% | +0.5 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 72% | +2.1 | n=6 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 5-2 | 71%from 72% | +0.5 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 72% | +2.1 | n=6 |
| on the road + vs the American Athletic | 5-2 | 71%from 57% | +0.5 | n=7 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.