Memphis at South Florida—

ST Model South Florida -10.7

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Memphis — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	30-29	51%	+2.1	n=59
vs South Florida	3-5	38%	+0.3	n=8
in a conference game	46-48	49%	+1.2	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	67-67	50%	+1.8	n=134
vs a G5 opponent	62-63	50%	+1.8	n=125
vs the American Athletic	46-48	49%	+1.2	n=94
in November	24-20	55%	+4.4	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	+1.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Memphis — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Memphis has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Memphis — combinations

26 lean Memphis · 88 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 63% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	11-7	61%from 51%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	+1.0	n=7
vs a G5 opponent + in November	24-20	55%from 50%	+4.4	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-10	44%from 55%	+1.8	n=18
in a conference game + in November	22-20	52%from 49%	+3.8	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 52%	+0.6	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in November	22-20	52%from 50%	+3.8	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 52%	+0.6	n=17
vs the American Athletic + in November	22-20	52%from 49%	+3.8	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 52%	+0.6	n=17
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	30-29	51%from 51%	+2.1	n=59
+ in November	11-7	61%from 51%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	+1.0	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 51%	+1.7	n=26
+ vs a G5 opponent	26-27	49%from 51%	+1.5	n=53
+ in November	11-7	61%from 49%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 49%	+0.8	n=23
+ vs the American Athletic	21-25	46%from 49%	+0.6	n=46
+ vs the American Athletic	21-25	46%from 51%	+0.6	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 46%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 46%	-1.0	n=19
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 51%	+1.7	n=26
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	26-27	49%from 51%	+1.5	n=53
+ in November	11-7	61%from 49%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 61%	+1.0	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 49%	+0.8	n=23
+ vs the American Athletic	21-25	46%from 49%	+0.6	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 46%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 46%	-1.0	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

South Florida — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	35-33	51%	-0.5	n=68
vs Memphis	5-3	63%	-0.3	n=8
in a conference game	47-45	51%	+0.2	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	69-61	53%	+0.2	n=130
vs a G5 opponent	54-55	50%	+0.1	n=109
vs the American Athletic	47-45	51%	+0.2	n=92
in November	26-19	58%	+2.0	n=45
at this venue	35-33	51%	-0.5	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	32-28	53%	+2.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

South Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=140

South Florida — combinations

176 lean South Florida · 0 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Memphis + in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
vs Memphis + in a conference game	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
vs Memphis + vs an FBS opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
vs Memphis + vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5
vs Memphis + vs the American Athletic	5-3	63%from 63%	-0.3	n=8
+ in November	4-1	80%from 63%	+1.7	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.