East Carolina at Army—

ST Model Army -0.5

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

East Carolina — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-31	52%	-0.8	n=64
in a conference game	41-50	45%	-0.8	n=91
vs an FBS opponent	63-66	49%	+0.1	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	54-62	47%	-0.2	n=116
vs the American Athletic	41-50	45%	-0.8	n=91
in November	19-24	44%	+0.4	n=43
in the last 5 seasons	36-26	58%	+3.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

East Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=140
East Carolina has covered 2 straight	n=2

East Carolina — combinations

31 lean East Carolina · 49 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 59%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 59% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 52%	+2.2	n=27
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	32-25	56%from 49%	+2.5	n=57
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-24	56%from 47%	+2.8	n=54
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 45%	+1.5	n=39
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 45%	+1.5	n=39
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	33-31	52%from 52%	-0.8	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 52%	+2.2	n=27
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-27	48%from 52%	-0.5	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-11	54%from 48%	+1.6	n=24
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 52%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ in November	10-13	43%from 52%	+0.6	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 43%	+3.8	n=11
in November + in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 44%	+1.8	n=20
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	25-27	48%from 52%	-0.5	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-11	54%from 48%	+1.6	n=24
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 43%	+3.8	n=11
on the road + in a conference game	21-23	48%from 52%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ vs a G5 opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ vs the American Athletic	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+0.1	n=18
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ in November	10-13	43%from 48%	+0.6	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 43%	+3.8	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Army — the basics

141 graded games since 2014

at home	27-41	40%	-1.3	n=68
in a conference game	12-9	57%	+3.8	n=21
vs an FBS opponent	63-61	51%	+1.0	n=124
vs a G5 opponent	57-52	52%	+1.4	n=109
vs the American Athletic	23-15	61%	+5.3	n=38
in November	21-18	54%	+1.0	n=39
at this venue	26-41	39%	-1.3	n=67
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	+2.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Army — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 141 graded games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=141
Army has covered 3 straight	n=3

Army — combinations

31 lean Army · 98 lean against

Read this first. 142 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 61%	+4.7	n=23
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 54%	+3.0	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + vs the American Athletic	23-15	61%from 51%	+5.3	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 61%	+4.7	n=23
+ in November	3-5	38%from 61%	-2.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 38%	-0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-9	25%from 61%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 25%	+2.8	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + vs the American Athletic	23-15	61%from 52%	+5.3	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 61%	+4.7	n=23
+ in November	3-5	38%from 61%	-2.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 38%	-0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-9	25%from 61%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 25%	+2.8	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-19	60%from 52%	+3.5	n=47
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	11-8	58%from 57%	+4.2	n=19
+ vs the American Athletic	11-8	58%from 58%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 58%	+4.2	n=19
+ in November	2-3	40%from 58%	-0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-6	33%from 58%	+2.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 58%	+4.2	n=19
+ in November	2-3	40%from 58%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 40%	-0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-6	33%from 58%	+2.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 33%	+2.8	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.