Western Kentucky at NevadaWestern Kentucky -3o/u 52.5

ST Model Western Kentucky -7.4(-4.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Western Kentucky — the basics

154 graded games since 2014

on the road	41-33	55%	+2.3	n=74
as a favorite	51-40	56%	+2.9	n=91
spread 1-3	15-11	58%	+1.9	n=26
out of conference	29-27	52%	+1.5	n=56
vs an FBS opponent	84-61	58%	+3.0	n=145
vs a G5 opponent	75-54	58%	+2.9	n=129
in September	25-16	61%	+3.1	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	42-26	62%	+2.0	n=68

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Western Kentucky — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 154 graded games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=154

Western Kentucky — combinations

91 lean Western Kentucky · 3 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 1.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	15-3	83%from 61%	+6.2	n=18
spread 1-3 + in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 58%	+8.3	n=10
spread 1-3 + out of conference	6-2	75%from 58%	+9.9	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-1	83%from 75%	+9.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-2	75%from 75%	+9.9	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-1	83%from 75%	+9.8	n=6
vs a G5 opponent + in September	17-8	68%from 58%	+5.3	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-2	85%from 68%	+8.8	n=13
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 52%	+1.9	n=26
vs an FBS opponent + in September	23-13	64%from 58%	+4.1	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-2	87%from 64%	+6.4	n=15
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-22	63%from 58%	+3.0	n=59
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	39-24	62%from 58%	+2.0	n=63
on the road + in September	13-8	62%from 55%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 62%	+1.4	n=9
as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons	26-17	60%from 56%	+3.0	n=43
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	72-48	60%from 58%	+3.5	n=120
+ in September	15-5	75%from 60%	+7.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 75%	+9.9	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	34-20	63%from 60%	+3.0	n=54
as a favorite + vs an FBS opponent	48-34	59%from 56%	+3.8	n=82
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-15	61%from 59%	+3.0	n=38
+ vs a G5 opponent	47-31	60%from 59%	+4.4	n=78
+ in September	9-3	75%from 60%	+10.9	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-15	61%from 60%	+3.0	n=38
+ in September	9-6	60%from 59%	+5.5	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-0	100%from 60%	+15.2	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Nevada — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	31-35	47%	-0.4	n=66
as an underdog	49-38	56%	+2.1	n=87
spread 1-3	16-13	55%	-0.4	n=29
out of conference	23-25	48%	-1.1	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	70-59	54%	+0.8	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	61-53	54%	+0.4	n=114
in September	15-24	38%	-3.9	n=39
at this venue	31-35	47%	-0.4	n=66
in the last 5 seasons	29-31	48%	-0.3	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Nevada — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=138

Nevada — combinations

56 lean Nevada · 141 lean against

Read this first. 224 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 82% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 1-3 + out of conference	6-3	67%from 55%	+2.7	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-2	75%from 67%	+6.1	n=8
+ in September	3-2	60%from 75%	+4.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 75%	+3.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 67%	+3.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 67%	+4.3	n=5
+ in September	3-3	50%from 67%	-0.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	-3.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 67%	-1.2	n=6
as an underdog + spread 1-3	12-7	63%from 56%	+2.8	n=19
+ out of conference	6-2	75%from 63%	+5.8	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-1	86%from 75%	+10.1	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 75%	+3.3	n=5
+ in September	3-2	60%from 75%	+4.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 75%	+4.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 75%	+3.1	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-6	67%from 63%	+4.3	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-6	60%from 67%	+3.2	n=15
+ at this venue	7-5	58%from 67%	+4.2	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 67%	+1.9	n=9
+ in September	3-2	60%from 63%	+4.3	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-7	56%from 63%	+1.5	n=16
+ at this venue	5-6	45%from 56%	+0.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 56%	-2.9	n=8
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 63%	+2.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 54%	+0.4	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 63%	-0.7	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.