UNLV at Hawai'iUNLV -1.5o/u 58.5

ST Model UNLV -3.6(-2.1 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UNLV — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

on the road	41-21	66%	+3.6	n=62
vs Hawai'i	7-3	70%	+4.4	n=10
as a favorite	28-25	53%	+0.5	n=53
spread 1-3	13-7	65%	+5.5	n=20
in a conference game	41-45	48%	-0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	66-56	54%	+0.5	n=122
vs a G5 opponent	56-56	50%	-0.2	n=112
vs the Mountain West	41-46	47%	-0.9	n=87
in September	27-11	71%	+4.7	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	39-26	60%	+3.3	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UNLV — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=134
UNLV has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

UNLV — combinations

197 lean UNLV · 11 lean against

Read this first. 233 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 13.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	15-1	94%from 71%	+12.7	n=16
spread 1-3 + in the last 5 seasons	12-2	86%from 65%	+12.5	n=14
spread 1-3 + in September	6-1	86%from 65%	+11.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 86%	+18.0	n=6
on the road + in September	15-3	83%from 66%	+5.2	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-0	100%from 83%	+10.4	n=7
in a conference game + in September	4-1	80%from 48%	+11.3	n=5
vs the Mountain West + in September	4-1	80%from 47%	+11.3	n=5
on the road + spread 1-3	7-2	78%from 66%	+7.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 78%	+12.2	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+7.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 78%	+12.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-2	75%from 78%	+5.3	n=8
+ vs the Mountain West	4-2	67%from 78%	+3.6	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-2	75%from 78%	+5.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 75%	+10.0	n=5
+ vs the Mountain West	4-2	67%from 75%	+3.6	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 78%	+3.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.6	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.6	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.6	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	4-2	67%from 78%	+3.6	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + in September	21-7	75%from 54%	+4.7	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-1	93%from 75%	+12.4	n=14
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	21-9	70%from 66%	+4.0	n=30

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Hawai'i — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

at home	33-32	51%	-1.1	n=65
vs UNLV	3-7	30%	-4.4	n=10
as an underdog	45-50	47%	-0.4	n=95
spread 1-3	15-14	52%	-0.9	n=29
in a conference game	40-46	47%	-1.3	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	56-70	44%	-1.6	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	49-57	46%	-1.3	n=106
vs the Mountain West	40-46	47%	-1.3	n=86
in September	15-20	43%	-0.8	n=35
at this venue	20-9	69%	+3.7	n=29
in the last 5 seasons	33-28	54%	-0.2	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Hawai'i — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=136
Hawai'i has covered 2 straight	n=2

Hawai'i — combinations

216 lean Hawai'i · 75 lean against

Read this first. 316 combinations shown. The best one here is 89%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + at this venue	14-2	88%from 47%	+11.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-2	88%from 88%	+11.4	n=16
vs the Mountain West + at this venue	14-2	88%from 47%	+11.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-2	88%from 88%	+11.4	n=16
spread 1-3 + at this venue	6-1	86%from 52%	+5.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 86%	+5.7	n=7
spread 1-3 + in September	4-1	80%from 52%	+10.1	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	18-6	75%from 44%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-6	75%from 75%	+5.6	n=24
as an underdog + at this venue	13-5	72%from 47%	+5.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-5	72%from 72%	+5.1	n=18
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	17-7	71%from 46%	+6.2	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-7	71%from 71%	+6.2	n=24
at home + at this venue	20-9	69%from 51%	+3.7	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-9	69%from 69%	+3.7	n=29
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	20-9	69%from 69%	+3.7	n=29
at home + in the last 5 seasons	22-10	69%from 51%	+3.7	n=32
in a conference game + in September	4-2	67%from 47%	+9.8	n=6
vs the Mountain West + in September	4-2	67%from 47%	+9.8	n=6
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	24-13	65%from 47%	+3.7	n=37
vs the Mountain West + in the last 5 seasons	24-13	65%from 47%	+3.7	n=37
at home + spread 1-3	9-5	64%from 51%	+1.6	n=14
+ at this venue	6-1	86%from 64%	+5.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 86%	+5.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 64%	+5.7	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-5	64%from 64%	+1.6	n=14
+ at this venue	6-1	86%from 64%	+5.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 64%	+5.7	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 64%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs the Mountain West	5-3	63%from 64%	+1.4	n=8
+ in a conference game	5-3	63%from 64%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs the Mountain West	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-3	63%from 64%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs the Mountain West	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.4	n=8
+ vs the Mountain West	5-3	63%from 64%	+1.4	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.