Central Michigan at New MexicoNew Mexico -12.5o/u 49.5

ST Model New Mexico -9.4(-3.1 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Central Michigan — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	38-27	58%	+1.5	n=65
as an underdog	41-33	55%	-0.2	n=74
spread 11-14	8-9	47%	-1.6	n=17
out of conference	22-23	49%	-2.9	n=45
vs an FBS opponent	66-60	52%	-0.4	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	58-52	53%	-0.1	n=110
vs the Mountain West	2-3	40%	-6.3	n=5
in September	20-19	51%	-0.9	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	28-32	47%	-1.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Central Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Central Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Central Michigan — combinations

55 lean Central Michigan · 35 lean against

Read this first. 111 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 3.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + spread 11-14	7-1	88%from 58%	+8.6	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-1	88%from 88%	+8.6	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-1	86%from 88%	+9.3	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-1	86%from 88%	+9.3	n=7
as an underdog + spread 11-14	6-3	67%from 55%	+1.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-2	71%from 67%	+3.2	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+1.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-2	71%from 67%	+3.2	n=7
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	28-18	61%from 58%	+2.2	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 61%	-1.2	n=22
on the road + as an underdog	26-18	59%from 58%	+1.9	n=44
+ spread 11-14	6-0	100%from 59%	+11.2	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-0	100%from 100%	+11.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+12.6	n=5
+ in September	13-8	62%from 59%	+1.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 62%	-0.6	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	16-10	62%from 59%	+2.8	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-7	50%from 62%	+1.6	n=14
+ out of conference	12-8	60%from 59%	+2.5	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-8	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 60%	+1.1	n=10
+ in September	11-8	58%from 60%	+1.8	n=19
+ vs an FBS opponent	26-18	59%from 59%	+1.9	n=44
+ in September	13-8	62%from 59%	+1.7	n=21
+ vs a G5 opponent	16-10	62%from 59%	+2.8	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 59%	-0.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 59%	-0.1	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

New Mexico — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

at home	27-41	40%	-1.3	n=68
as a favorite	14-30	32%	-4.1	n=44
spread 11-14	7-11	39%	-4.1	n=18
out of conference	20-25	44%	+1.2	n=45
vs an FBS opponent	50-76	40%	-1.6	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	47-67	41%	-0.8	n=114
in September	17-21	45%	+1.1	n=38
at this venue	28-42	40%	-1.3	n=70
in the last 5 seasons	24-36	40%	-0.4	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

New Mexico — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=135

New Mexico — combinations

14 lean New Mexico · 157 lean against

Read this first. 190 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a G5 opponent + in September	12-11	52%from 41%	+2.6	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 52%	+3.8	n=11
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 52%	+3.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 44%	+5.8	n=8
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent	12-12	50%from 44%	+3.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 50%	+4.7	n=10
+ at this venue	9-10	47%from 50%	+3.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 47%	+7.0	n=8
+ in September	8-9	47%from 50%	+2.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 47%	+4.5	n=9
+ at this venue	6-7	46%from 47%	+3.4	n=13
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 44%	+3.8	n=22
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 45%	+3.6	n=19
out of conference + at this venue	11-14	44%from 44%	+1.5	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 44%	+5.9	n=10
at home + out of conference	10-13	43%from 40%	+1.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 43%	+5.9	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-9	50%from 43%	+3.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 50%	+7.0	n=8
+ at this venue	9-9	50%from 50%	+3.4	n=18
+ in September	6-7	46%from 50%	+3.4	n=13
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	+1.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 43%	+5.9	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-9	36%from 43%	-2.5	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 36%	+2.1	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-5	44%from 36%	-1.4	n=9
+ at this venue	5-9	36%from 36%	-2.5	n=14
+ in September	2-7	22%from 36%	-6.6	n=9
+ in September	6-11	35%from 43%	+0.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 35%	+4.9	n=8
+ at this venue	6-11	35%from 35%	+0.5	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.