North Dakota State at UNLV—

ST Model UNLV -11.1

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

North Dakota State — the basics

54 graded games since 2014

on the road	12-11	52%	+2.5	n=23
in a conference game	17-16	52%	+2.4	n=33
vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%	+10.4	n=5
vs a G5 opponent	28-23	55%	+2.8	n=51
in October	7-8	47%	+0.4	n=15
in the last 5 seasons	29-24	55%	+2.6	n=53

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

North Dakota State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +6.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 54 graded games: +2.9 pts vs their number per game	n=54

North Dakota State — combinations

4 lean North Dakota State · 14 lean against

Read this first. 31 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-23	55%from 55%	+2.8	n=51
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	17-16	52%from 52%	+2.4	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-16	52%from 52%	+2.4	n=33
+ in October	7-8	47%from 52%	+0.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 47%	+0.4	n=15
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	17-16	52%from 52%	+2.4	n=33
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 52%	+1.8	n=22
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	10-10	50%from 52%	+2.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 50%	+2.1	n=20
+ in October	3-4	43%from 50%	-1.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 43%	-1.2	n=7
on the road + in a conference game	8-8	50%from 52%	+2.6	n=16
+ vs a G5 opponent	8-8	50%from 50%	+2.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 50%	+2.6	n=16
+ in October	3-4	43%from 50%	-1.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 50%	+2.6	n=16
+ in October	3-4	43%from 50%	-1.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 43%	-1.2	n=7
in a conference game + in October	7-8	47%from 52%	+0.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 47%	+0.4	n=15
vs a G5 opponent + in October	7-8	47%from 55%	+0.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 47%	+0.4	n=15
in October + in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 47%	+0.4	n=15
on the road + in October	3-4	43%from 52%	-1.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 43%	-1.2	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UNLV — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

at home	27-37	42%	-2.9	n=64
in a conference game	41-45	48%	-0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	66-56	54%	+0.5	n=122
vs a G5 opponent	56-56	50%	-0.2	n=112
vs the Mountain West	41-46	47%	-0.9	n=87
in October	17-22	44%	-1.9	n=39
at this venue	15-18	45%	+1.9	n=33
in the last 5 seasons	39-26	60%	+3.3	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UNLV — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=134
UNLV has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

UNLV — combinations

10 lean UNLV · 134 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	36-25	59%from 54%	+3.3	n=61
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-23	56%from 50%	+2.9	n=52
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	21-20	51%from 48%	+2.2	n=41
vs the Mountain West + in the last 5 seasons	21-21	50%from 47%	+1.9	n=42
at home + in the last 5 seasons	15-15	50%from 42%	+2.8	n=30
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	15-15	50%from 45%	+2.8	n=30
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	49-51	49%from 54%	-0.6	n=100
+ in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 49%	+2.9	n=48
+ vs the Mountain West	41-46	47%from 49%	-0.9	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-21	50%from 47%	+1.9	n=42
+ in October	13-21	38%from 47%	-3.6	n=34
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 47%	+1.0	n=24
+ in October	14-21	40%from 49%	-3.1	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-10	33%from 40%	-3.3	n=15
+ at this venue	1-6	14%from 40%	-5.1	n=7
+ at this venue	10-15	40%from 49%	+2.1	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 40%	+3.3	n=22
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	41-45	48%from 48%	-0.8	n=86
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-20	51%from 48%	+2.2	n=41
+ vs a G5 opponent	41-45	48%from 48%	-0.8	n=86
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-20	51%from 48%	+2.2	n=41
+ vs the Mountain West	41-45	48%from 48%	-0.8	n=86
+ in October	13-21	38%from 48%	-3.6	n=34
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 48%	+1.0	n=24
+ vs the Mountain West	41-45	48%from 48%	-0.8	n=86
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-20	51%from 48%	+2.2	n=41
+ in October	13-21	38%from 48%	-3.6	n=34
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 48%	+1.0	n=24
+ in October	13-21	38%from 48%	-3.6	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-10	29%from 38%	-4.6	n=14
+ at this venue	1-6	14%from 38%	-5.1	n=7
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 48%	+1.0	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-12	43%from 38%	+2.1	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.