San José State at Nevada—

ST Model Nevada -1.1

Trends · 2026 week 8

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

San José State — the basics

122 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-33	44%	-2.7	n=59
vs Nevada	2-7	22%	-10.3	n=9
in a conference game	35-46	43%	-2.5	n=81
vs an FBS opponent	51-64	44%	-2.9	n=115
vs a G5 opponent	44-56	44%	-2.7	n=100
vs the Mountain West	35-46	43%	-2.5	n=81
in October	18-19	49%	+0.7	n=37
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-2.5	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

San José State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -10.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 122 graded games: -2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=122
San José State has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

San José State — combinations

0 lean San José State · 103 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 57% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 44%	-1.1	n=28
vs an FBS opponent + in October	18-19	49%from 44%	+0.7	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 49%	+0.7	n=20
in a conference game + in October	16-17	48%from 43%	+1.1	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 48%	+1.8	n=19
vs a G5 opponent + in October	16-17	48%from 44%	+1.1	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 48%	+1.8	n=19
vs the Mountain West + in October	16-17	48%from 43%	+1.1	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 48%	+1.8	n=19
on the road + in October	9-11	45%from 44%	+1.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 45%	+0.2	n=11
in October + in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 49%	+0.7	n=20
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	26-33	44%from 44%	-2.7	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 44%	-1.1	n=28
+ in October	9-11	45%from 44%	+1.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 45%	+0.2	n=11
+ vs the Mountain West	16-23	41%from 44%	-2.5	n=39
+ in October	7-10	41%from 41%	+1.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 41%	-3.2	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	17-25	40%from 44%	-3.3	n=42
+ in October	7-10	41%from 40%	+1.0	n=17
+ vs the Mountain West	16-23	41%from 40%	-2.5	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-13	38%from 40%	-3.5	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	25-32	44%from 44%	-2.8	n=57
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	35-46	43%from 43%	-2.5	n=81
+ in October	16-17	48%from 43%	+1.1	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 48%	+1.8	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	35-46	43%from 43%	-2.5	n=81
+ in October	16-17	48%from 43%	+1.1	n=33
+ vs the Mountain West	35-46	43%from 43%	-2.5	n=81
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-25	36%from 43%	-3.9	n=39
+ vs the Mountain West	35-46	43%from 43%	-2.5	n=81
+ in October	16-17	48%from 43%	+1.1	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-25	36%from 43%	-3.9	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-25	36%from 43%	-3.9	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Nevada — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	31-35	47%	-0.4	n=66
vs San José State	7-2	78%	+10.3	n=9
in a conference game	50-40	56%	+1.1	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	70-59	54%	+0.8	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	61-53	54%	+0.4	n=114
vs the Mountain West	50-40	56%	+1.1	n=90
in October	24-16	60%	+1.6	n=40
at this venue	31-35	47%	-0.4	n=66
in the last 5 seasons	29-31	48%	-0.3	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Nevada — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=138

Nevada — combinations

77 lean Nevada · 91 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs San José State + in a conference game	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
vs San José State + vs an FBS opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
vs San José State + vs a G5 opponent	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
+ vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
vs San José State + vs the Mountain West	7-2	78%from 78%	+10.3	n=9
in October + in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 60%	+1.0	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + in October	24-16	60%from 54%	+1.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 60%	+1.0	n=19
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 60%	+0.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 52%	-2.3	n=9
in a conference game + in October	22-15	59%from 56%	+1.1	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 59%	+0.8	n=17
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	-3.9	n=7
vs a G5 opponent + in October	22-15	59%from 54%	+1.1	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 59%	+0.8	n=17
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	-3.9	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.