UNLV at New Mexico—

ST Model UNLV -2.2

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UNLV — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

on the road	41-21	66%	+3.6	n=62
vs New Mexico	3-3	50%	-1.2	n=6
in a conference game	41-45	48%	-0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	66-56	54%	+0.5	n=122
vs a G5 opponent	56-56	50%	-0.2	n=112
vs the Mountain West	41-46	47%	-0.9	n=87
in November	23-22	51%	+0.4	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	39-26	60%	+3.3	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UNLV — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=134
UNLV has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

UNLV — combinations

76 lean UNLV · 11 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	21-9	70%from 66%	+4.0	n=30
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	40-21	66%from 66%	+3.1	n=61
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-9	70%from 66%	+4.0	n=30
+ in November	13-7	65%from 66%	+4.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 65%	+5.5	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	27-21	56%from 66%	+1.4	n=48
+ in November	12-7	63%from 56%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-9	63%from 56%	+2.9	n=24
+ vs the Mountain West	22-19	54%from 56%	+1.1	n=41
+ vs the Mountain West	22-19	54%from 66%	+1.1	n=41
+ in November	12-7	63%from 54%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 54%	+1.6	n=21
on the road + in November	13-7	65%from 66%	+4.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 65%	+5.5	n=10
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 51%	+4.7	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	36-25	59%from 54%	+3.3	n=61
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	28-21	57%from 66%	+2.0	n=49
+ in November	12-7	63%from 57%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 63%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-9	63%from 57%	+2.9	n=24
+ vs the Mountain West	22-19	54%from 57%	+1.1	n=41
+ in November	12-7	63%from 54%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 54%	+1.6	n=21
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-23	56%from 50%	+2.9	n=52
on the road + in a conference game	22-18	55%from 66%	+1.4	n=40
+ in November	12-7	63%from 55%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 63%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.3	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ in November	12-7	63%from 55%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.3	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ vs the Mountain West	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ vs a G5 opponent	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ in November	12-7	63%from 55%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.3	n=20
+ vs the Mountain West	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ vs the Mountain West	22-18	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=40
+ in November	12-7	63%from 55%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.3	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

New Mexico — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

at home	27-41	40%	-1.3	n=68
vs UNLV	3-3	50%	+1.2	n=6
in a conference game	35-55	39%	-1.9	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	50-76	40%	-1.6	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	47-67	41%	-0.8	n=114
vs the Mountain West	35-55	39%	-1.9	n=90
in November	18-28	39%	-1.7	n=46
at this venue	28-42	40%	-1.3	n=70
in the last 5 seasons	24-36	40%	-0.4	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

New Mexico — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=135

New Mexico — combinations

0 lean New Mexico · 154 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 55% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs UNLV + in a conference game	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
vs UNLV + vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
vs UNLV + vs a G5 opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
+ vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
vs UNLV + vs the Mountain West	3-3	50%from 50%	+1.2	n=6
at home + in November	10-13	43%from 40%	-1.9	n=23
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	-1.9	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 43%	-6.9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 43%	-6.9	n=9
in November + at this venue	10-13	43%from 39%	-1.9	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 43%	-6.9	n=9
at home + vs a G5 opponent	26-37	41%from 40%	-1.1	n=63
+ at this venue	26-37	41%from 41%	-1.1	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-16	38%from 41%	-2.9	n=26
+ in November	9-13	41%from 41%	-2.6	n=22
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 41%	-2.6	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 41%	-9.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-16	38%from 41%	-2.9	n=26
+ vs the Mountain West	17-28	38%from 41%	-2.8	n=45
+ in November	9-13	41%from 38%	-2.6	n=22
+ at this venue	17-28	38%from 38%	-2.8	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-13	28%from 38%	-7.3	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.