How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Sacramento State — the basics
55 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 20-14 | 59% | +0.6 | n=34 |
| out of conference | 14-10 | 58% | +3.6 | n=24 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 23-27 | 46% | -1.5 | n=50 |
| vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| in November | 7-7 | 50% | -3.7 | n=14 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 22-27 | 45% | -1.4 | n=49 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Sacramento State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 55 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game | n=55 |
Sacramento State — combinations
38 lean Sacramento State · 1 lean against
Read this first. 50 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 59% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| out of conference + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 58% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 83% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 46% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 59% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 83% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 58% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 83% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| on the road + out of conference | 12-6 | 67%from 59% | +4.4 | n=18 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 67% | +5.0 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 73% | +7.5 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 67% | +4.9 | n=13 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 5-1 | 83%from 69% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-4 | 60%from 69% | +4.0 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-4 | 67%from 67% | +5.6 | n=12 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.