How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Nevada — the basics
138 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 38-29 | 57% | +1.2 | n=67 |
| vs UNLV | 6-6 | 50% | +0.1 | n=12 |
| in a conference game | 50-40 | 56% | +1.1 | n=90 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 70-59 | 54% | +0.8 | n=129 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 61-53 | 54% | +0.4 | n=114 |
| vs the Mountain West | 50-40 | 56% | +1.1 | n=90 |
| in November | 24-21 | 53% | +2.4 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 29-31 | 48% | -0.3 | n=60 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Nevada — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 138 graded games: +0.3 pts vs their number per game | n=138 |
Nevada — combinations
93 lean Nevada · 36 lean against
Read this first. 151 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs UNLV | 4-2 | 67%from 57% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +9.4 | n=5 |
| + in a conference game | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +9.4 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +9.4 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +9.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| + in November | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +9.4 | n=5 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 19-11 | 63%from 57% | +1.9 | n=30 |
| vs UNLV + in November | 5-3 | 63%from 50% | +2.9 | n=8 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 28-18 | 61%from 57% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 61% | +3.9 | n=20 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 61% | +3.9 | n=20 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in November | 14-9 | 61%from 61% | +4.8 | n=23 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 61% | +3.9 | n=20 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in November | 14-9 | 61%from 61% | +4.8 | n=23 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 28-18 | 61%from 61% | +3.1 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 61% | +3.9 | n=20 |
| + in November | 14-9 | 61%from 61% | +4.8 | n=23 |
| + in November | 14-9 | 61%from 61% | +4.8 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-2 | 75%from 61% | +6.1 | n=8 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.