UTEP at Northern Illinois—

ST Model Northern Illinois -5.5

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UTEP — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-40	40%	-1.7	n=67
in a conference game	40-48	45%	-1.1	n=88
vs an FBS opponent	52-71	42%	-1.2	n=123
vs a G5 opponent	50-65	43%	-1.1	n=115
vs the Mountain West	4-8	33%	-0.9	n=12
in November	16-25	39%	-2.5	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-0.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UTEP — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=132
UTEP has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

UTEP — combinations

3 lean UTEP · 54 lean against

Read this first. 68 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 45%	-0.3	n=40
on the road + in a conference game	21-23	48%from 40%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 48%	+0.9	n=19
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 48%	+0.9	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in November	6-15	29%from 48%	-5.5	n=21
+ vs a G5 opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 48%	+0.9	n=19
+ in November	6-15	29%from 48%	-5.5	n=21
+ in November	6-15	29%from 48%	-5.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 29%	-1.8	n=8
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	25-28	47%from 43%	-0.6	n=53
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	40-48	45%from 45%	-1.1	n=88
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 45%	-0.3	n=40
+ vs a G5 opponent	40-48	45%from 45%	-1.1	n=88
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 45%	-0.3	n=40
+ in November	16-23	41%from 45%	-2.2	n=39
+ in November	16-23	41%from 45%	-2.2	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 41%	-0.7	n=17
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	40-48	45%from 45%	-1.1	n=88
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 45%	-0.3	n=40
+ in November	16-23	41%from 45%	-2.2	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 41%	-0.7	n=17
in November + in the last 5 seasons	8-10	44%from 39%	-1.4	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Northern Illinois — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

at home	21-41	34%	-3.8	n=62
in a conference game	45-51	47%	-0.3	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	65-68	49%	-0.9	n=133
vs a G5 opponent	56-65	46%	-1.4	n=121
vs the Mountain West	3-5	38%	-7.6	n=8
in November	23-24	49%	-1.9	n=47
at this venue	21-41	34%	-3.8	n=62
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-0.7	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Northern Illinois — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Northern Illinois has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Northern Illinois — combinations

0 lean Northern Illinois · 94 lean against

Read this first. 102 combinations shown. The best one here is 49%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in November	23-24	49%from 47%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 49%	-4.5	n=19
+ at this venue	7-16	30%from 49%	-5.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-9	18%from 30%	-8.4	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-24	49%from 49%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 49%	-4.5	n=19
+ at this venue	7-16	30%from 49%	-5.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-9	18%from 30%	-8.4	n=11
vs a G5 opponent + in November	23-24	49%from 46%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 49%	-4.5	n=19
+ at this venue	7-16	30%from 49%	-5.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-9	18%from 30%	-8.4	n=11
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	45-51	47%from 47%	-0.3	n=96
+ in November	23-24	49%from 47%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 49%	-4.5	n=19
+ at this venue	7-16	30%from 49%	-5.5	n=23
+ vs a G5 opponent	45-51	47%from 47%	-0.3	n=96
+ in November	23-24	49%from 47%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-25	39%from 47%	-1.0	n=41
+ at this venue	14-31	31%from 47%	-4.0	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-25	39%from 47%	-1.0	n=41
+ at this venue	14-31	31%from 47%	-4.0	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-15	25%from 31%	-5.8	n=20
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	45-51	47%from 47%	-0.3	n=96
+ in November	23-24	49%from 47%	-1.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 49%	-4.5	n=19
+ at this venue	7-16	30%from 49%	-5.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-25	39%from 47%	-1.0	n=41
+ at this venue	14-31	31%from 47%	-4.0	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-15	25%from 31%	-5.8	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.