New Mexico State at Florida StateFlorida State -31o/u 53.5

ST Model Florida State -32.1(+1.1 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

New Mexico State — the basics

124 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-33	49%	-0.2	n=65
as an underdog	47-46	51%	+0.6	n=93
spread 21+	14-12	54%	+5.1	n=26
out of conference	35-32	52%	+0.8	n=67
vs an FBS opponent	58-53	52%	+0.4	n=111
vs a P5 opponent	10-13	43%	+1.8	n=23
in August	1-4	20%	-3.8	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	37-27	58%	+3.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

New Mexico State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 124 graded games: +0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=124

New Mexico State — combinations

30 lean New Mexico State · 45 lean against

Read this first. 100 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 54%	+11.9	n=15
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 49%	+4.2	n=32
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	33-25	57%from 52%	+2.6	n=58
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	26-20	57%from 51%	+3.8	n=46
spread 21+ + out of conference	12-10	55%from 54%	+3.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 55%	+7.9	n=13
+ vs an FBS opponent	10-10	50%from 55%	+1.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 50%	+5.2	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-10	41%from 50%	-0.5	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-10	41%from 55%	-0.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 41%	+2.9	n=8
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	20-17	54%from 52%	+2.2	n=37
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	32-31	51%from 49%	+0.4	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 51%	+4.2	n=32
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-11	45%from 51%	+2.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 45%	+9.2	n=10
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	45-44	51%from 51%	+0.7	n=89
+ in the last 5 seasons	26-20	57%from 51%	+3.8	n=46
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-12	40%from 51%	+2.0	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 40%	+9.2	n=9
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	29-29	50%from 52%	-0.6	n=58
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-15	52%from 50%	+0.7	n=31
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-13	38%from 50%	-1.3	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 38%	+1.4	n=10
as an underdog + out of conference	25-25	50%from 51%	+0.8	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-12	54%from 50%	+3.0	n=26
+ vs an FBS opponent	24-25	49%from 50%	+0.3	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-12	54%from 49%	+3.0	n=26
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-12	37%from 49%	-0.9	n=19
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-12	37%from 50%	-0.9	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 37%	+2.9	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Florida State — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

at home	35-42	45%	-2.5	n=77
as a favorite	43-54	44%	-3.0	n=97
spread 21+	14-18	44%	-3.9	n=32
out of conference	23-26	47%	-1.8	n=49
vs an FBS opponent	60-76	44%	-3.2	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	12-12	50%	-2.0	n=24
at this venue	35-42	45%	-2.5	n=77
in the last 5 seasons	31-31	50%	-1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -3.1 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Florida State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Florida State — combinations

84 lean Florida State · 40 lean against

Read this first. 161 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 50%	+2.7	n=8
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 47%	+0.4	n=20
spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 44%	-2.0	n=15
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	8-7	53%from 44%	-1.8	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 53%	-1.1	n=5
+ at this venue	6-6	50%from 53%	-3.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	-1.1	n=5
at home + spread 21+	13-12	52%from 45%	-1.0	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.7	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-7	56%from 52%	-0.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 56%	+4.2	n=7
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	-0.3	n=16
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-4	56%from 56%	-2.1	n=9
+ out of conference	10-9	53%from 52%	-1.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 53%	+7.1	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 53%	+0.1	n=10
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-1.1	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-9	50%from 53%	-2.3	n=18
+ at this venue	13-12	52%from 52%	-1.0	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.7	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-9	50%from 52%	-2.3	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 50%	+5.2	n=7
+ at this venue	9-9	50%from 50%	-2.3	n=18
spread 21+ + at this venue	13-12	52%from 44%	-1.0	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.7	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.