Jacksonville State at North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State -7.5o/u 48.5

ST Model North Dakota State -20.6(+13.1 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Jacksonville State — the basics

57 graded games since 2014

on the road	16-12	57%	+6.3	n=28
as an underdog	18-10	64%	+6.7	n=28
spread 7.5-10.5	6-2	75%	+12.8	n=8
out of conference	15-14	52%	+3.6	n=29
vs an FBS opponent	28-19	60%	+5.1	n=47
vs a G5 opponent	29-19	60%	+5.7	n=48
in August	3-2	60%	+1.6	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	31-20	61%	+5.9	n=51

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Jacksonville State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 57 graded games: +6.3 pts vs their number per game	n=57

Jacksonville State — combinations

26 lean Jacksonville State · 22 lean against

Read this first. 62 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 75%	+14.4	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+14.4	n=5
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs a G5 opponent	6-2	75%from 75%	+12.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+11.8	n=7
spread 7.5-10.5 + in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 75%	+11.8	n=7
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	14-8	64%from 64%	+6.0	n=22
as an underdog + vs a G5 opponent	12-7	63%from 64%	+5.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 63%	+4.9	n=18
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	16-10	62%from 64%	+4.9	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 62%	+3.5	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	10-7	59%from 62%	+2.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 59%	+1.7	n=16
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-19	60%from 60%	+5.5	n=47
on the road + as an underdog	10-7	59%from 57%	+6.8	n=17
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-7	56%from 59%	+5.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 56%	+2.9	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-4	43%from 56%	+0.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 59%	+5.2	n=11
+ out of conference	7-6	54%from 59%	+4.6	n=13
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-6	54%from 54%	+4.6	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 54%	+0.3	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-4	50%from 59%	+4.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 50%	+2.0	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	24-17	59%from 60%	+4.5	n=41
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	22-16	58%from 60%	+4.2	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-16	57%from 58%	+3.8	n=37

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

North Dakota State — the basics

54 graded games since 2014

at home	16-12	57%	+3.9	n=28
as a favorite	24-22	52%	+2.8	n=46
spread 7.5-10.5	6-2	75%	+10.1	n=8
out of conference	13-8	62%	+3.6	n=21
vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%	+10.4	n=5
vs a G5 opponent	28-23	55%	+2.8	n=51
at this venue	16-12	57%	+3.9	n=28
in the last 5 seasons	29-24	55%	+2.6	n=53

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

North Dakota State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +6.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 54 graded games: +2.9 pts vs their number per game	n=54

North Dakota State — combinations

57 lean North Dakota State · 0 lean against

Read this first. 65 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 7.5-10.5 + in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+10.1	n=8
as a favorite + spread 7.5-10.5	5-2	71%from 52%	+10.9	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-2	71%from 71%	+10.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 71%	+10.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 71%	+10.9	n=7
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs a G5 opponent	5-2	71%from 75%	+10.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 71%	+10.9	n=7
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent	11-7	61%from 62%	+3.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+3.4	n=18
+ at this venue	7-5	58%from 61%	+4.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 62%	+3.0	n=20
at home + out of conference	7-5	58%from 57%	+4.3	n=12
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
+ at this venue	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
+ at this venue	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
out of conference + at this venue	7-5	58%from 62%	+4.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	n=12
at home + vs a G5 opponent	16-12	57%from 57%	+3.9	n=28
+ at this venue	16-12	57%from 57%	+3.9	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-12	57%from 57%	+3.9	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-12	57%from 57%	+3.9	n=28

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.