How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
New Mexico State — the basics
124 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 32-33 | 49% | -0.2 | n=65 |
| out of conference | 35-32 | 52% | +0.8 | n=67 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 58-53 | 52% | +0.4 | n=111 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 55-46 | 54% | +0.6 | n=101 |
| vs the Mountain West | 15-8 | 65% | +2.6 | n=23 |
| in September | 21-18 | 54% | -0.2 | n=39 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 37-27 | 58% | +3.3 | n=64 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
New Mexico State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 124 graded games: +0.8 pts vs their number per game | n=124 |
New Mexico State — combinations
79 lean New Mexico State · 5 lean against
Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 68% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs the Mountain West | 10-2 | 83%from 49% | +4.1 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-2 | 78%from 83% | +3.8 | n=9 |
| + in September | 6-2 | 75%from 83% | +2.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 75% | +1.3 | n=6 |
| out of conference + vs the Mountain West | 15-8 | 65%from 52% | +2.6 | n=23 |
| + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 64% | +2.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-7 | 56%from 65% | +1.7 | n=16 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mountain West | 15-8 | 65%from 52% | +2.6 | n=23 |
| + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 64% | +2.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-7 | 56%from 65% | +1.7 | n=16 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mountain West | 15-8 | 65%from 54% | +2.6 | n=23 |
| + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 64% | +2.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-7 | 56%from 65% | +1.7 | n=16 |
| vs the Mountain West + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 64% | +2.1 | n=9 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 31-21 | 60%from 54% | +2.5 | n=52 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 19-13 | 59%from 49% | +4.2 | n=32 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 27-19 | 59%from 52% | +1.8 | n=46 |
| + vs the Mountain West | 15-8 | 65%from 59% | +2.6 | n=23 |
| + in September | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-7 | 56%from 65% | +1.7 | n=16 |
| + in September | 15-8 | 65%from 59% | +3.2 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-5 | 64%from 65% | +4.1 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 16-11 | 59%from 59% | +2.5 | n=27 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.