New Mexico at New Mexico State

ST Model New Mexico -10.4
Trends · 2026 week 4
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
New Mexico — the basics
135 graded games since 2014
on the road26-3741%-0.8n=63
vs New Mexico State2-722%-7.6n=9
out of conference20-2544%+1.2n=45
vs an FBS opponent50-7640%-1.6n=126
vs a G5 opponent47-6741%-0.8n=114
vs the Conference USA4-450%+1.4n=8
in September17-2145%+1.1n=38
in the last 5 seasons24-3640%-0.4n=60
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
New Mexico — form & streaks
Last 12 games: +4.0 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 135 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per gamen=135
New Mexico — combinations
31 lean New Mexico · 48 lean against
Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
vs the Conference USA + in September3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 60%-0.3n=5
vs the Conference USA + in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
on the road + in September10-856%from 41%+1.3n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons5-550%from 56%+3.3n=10
vs a G5 opponent + in September12-1152%from 41%+2.6n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons6-555%from 52%+3.8n=11
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent12-1250%from 44%+3.3n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons6-460%from 50%+4.7n=10
+ vs the Conference USA4-450%from 50%+1.4n=8
+ in September3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in September8-947%from 50%+2.1n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons5-456%from 47%+4.5n=9
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons11-1150%from 44%+3.8n=22
out of conference + vs the Conference USA4-450%from 44%+1.4n=8
+ in September3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 60%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Conference USA4-450%from 40%+1.4n=8
+ in September3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 60%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Conference USA4-450%from 41%+1.4n=8
+ in September3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 60%-0.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 50%-0.3n=5
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.