Sacramento State at Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan -8.5o/u 53

ST Model Eastern Michigan -12.3(+3.8 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Sacramento State — the basics

55 graded games since 2014

on the road	20-14	59%	+0.6	n=34
as an underdog	13-11	54%	-0.4	n=24
spread 7.5-10.5	4-5	44%	+0.6	n=9
in a conference game	12-19	39%	-4.7	n=31
vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%	+5.0	n=11
vs a G5 opponent	23-27	46%	-1.5	n=50
in the last 5 seasons	22-27	45%	-1.4	n=49

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Sacramento State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 55 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=55

Sacramento State — combinations

18 lean Sacramento State · 23 lean against

Read this first. 57 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	5-1	83%from 73%	+6.8	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 73%	+7.5	n=6
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 59%	+5.0	n=11
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-1	83%from 73%	+6.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 73%	+7.5	n=6
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 54%	+2.9	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 70%	+2.8	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 70%	+3.7	n=5
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	17-12	59%from 59%	+0.1	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-12	54%from 59%	-0.8	n=26
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-12	57%from 59%	+0.3	n=28
on the road + as an underdog	12-9	57%from 59%	-0.5	n=21
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 57%	+2.9	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 70%	+2.8	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 70%	+3.7	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-7	56%from 57%	-1.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-7	46%from 56%	-3.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 57%	-1.5	n=15
+ in a conference game	2-4	33%from 57%	-9.6	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	2-4	33%from 33%	-9.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 33%	-9.6	n=6
as an underdog + vs a G5 opponent	10-9	53%from 54%	-1.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 53%	-3.0	n=16
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 54%	-1.2	n=18
on the road + in a conference game	8-8	50%from 59%	-3.8	n=16
+ vs a G5 opponent	8-8	50%from 50%	-3.8	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 50%	-3.8	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 50%	-3.8	n=16

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Eastern Michigan — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	27-37	42%	-4.3	n=64
as a favorite	20-26	43%	-3.0	n=46
spread 7.5-10.5	13-7	65%	+3.0	n=20
in a conference game	46-44	51%	-0.1	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	69-61	53%	+0.1	n=130
vs a G5 opponent	60-56	52%	-0.4	n=116
vs the Mid-American	46-44	51%	-0.1	n=90
in August	3-2	60%	+0.2	n=5
at this venue	27-36	43%	-3.9	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	32-29	52%	-0.7	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Eastern Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=139
Eastern Michigan has covered 3 straight	n=3

Eastern Michigan — combinations

116 lean Eastern Michigan · 85 lean against

Read this first. 219 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 7.5-10.5 + in a conference game	10-4	71%from 65%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 65%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs a G5 opponent	12-5	71%from 65%	+4.9	n=17
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 71%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 71%	+5.7	n=10
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 71%	+5.6	n=7
spread 7.5-10.5 + vs an FBS opponent	13-6	68%from 65%	+3.3	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	12-4	75%from 68%	+5.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 75%	+6.6	n=9
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 75%	+3.4	n=14
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 75%	+7.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	10-4	71%from 68%	+3.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 71%	+3.6	n=8
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 71%	+2.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 68%	+2.4	n=11
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 68%	+5.1	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.