How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Buffalo — the basics
125 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 25-35 | 42% | -2.3 | n=60 |
| out of conference | 21-18 | 54% | -1.5 | n=39 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 59-56 | 51% | +0.6 | n=115 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 54-54 | 50% | +0.2 | n=108 |
| vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| in September | 18-17 | 51% | -2.3 | n=35 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 27-31 | 47% | -0.9 | n=58 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Buffalo — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game | n=125 |
Buffalo — combinations
29 lean Buffalo · 23 lean against
Read this first. 60 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 54% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 51% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 50% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 12-8 | 60%from 54% | -1.0 | n=20 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 17-12 | 59%from 54% | +0.1 | n=29 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 8-4 | 67%from 59% | +2.0 | n=12 |
| + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-3 | 57%from 67% | -1.3 | n=7 |
| + in September | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -2.0 | n=8 |
| + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 59% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-6 | 60%from 59% | -1.0 | n=15 |
| + in September | 10-11 | 48%from 59% | -2.5 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-6 | 45%from 48% | -4.9 | n=11 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 12-10 | 55%from 54% | -1.8 | n=22 |
| + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 55% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-5 | 58%from 55% | -1.1 | n=12 |
| + in September | 7-8 | 47%from 55% | -4.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-5 | 44%from 47% | -5.6 | n=9 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in September | 12-10 | 55%from 50% | -1.9 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-6 | 54%from 55% | -1.9 | n=13 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 15-13 | 54%from 51% | -1.3 | n=28 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-7 | 53%from 54% | -1.9 | n=15 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 10-9 | 53%from 51% | -2.4 | n=19 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent | 50-48 | 51%from 51% | +0.9 | n=98 |
| + vs the Conference USA | 4-2 | 67%from 51% | -0.8 | n=6 |
| + in September | 9-6 | 60%from 51% | +0.1 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 60% | -0.7 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 19-26 | 42%from 51% | -0.9 | n=45 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.