How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Ball State — the basics
136 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 34-33 | 51% | -2.1 | n=67 |
| out of conference | 22-22 | 50% | -2.0 | n=44 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 61-65 | 48% | -1.6 | n=126 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 55-61 | 47% | -2.1 | n=116 |
| vs the Conference USA | 3-2 | 60% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| in September | 20-21 | 49% | -3.2 | n=41 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 30-29 | 51% | -1.2 | n=59 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Ball State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game | n=136 |
Ball State — combinations
25 lean Ball State · 32 lean against
Read this first. 70 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 73% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + vs the Conference USA | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Conference USA | 3-2 | 60%from 48% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Conference USA | 3-2 | 60%from 47% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| vs the Conference USA + in September | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | -2.2 | n=5 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 26-23 | 53%from 47% | -1.2 | n=49 |
| on the road + out of conference | 12-11 | 52%from 51% | -1.8 | n=23 |
| + in September | 11-9 | 55%from 52% | -1.9 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-7 | 22%from 55% | -10.5 | n=9 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 12-11 | 52%from 52% | -1.8 | n=23 |
| + in September | 11-9 | 55%from 52% | -1.9 | n=20 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 3-3 | 50%from 52% | -9.3 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -8.3 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 3-3 | 50%from 52% | -9.3 | n=6 |
| + in September | 3-3 | 50%from 50% | -9.3 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -8.3 | n=11 |
| on the road + in September | 13-12 | 52%from 51% | -3.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -9.8 | n=11 |
| out of conference + in September | 17-16 | 52%from 50% | -2.9 | n=33 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-9 | 40%from 52% | -7.8 | n=15 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 34-33 | 51%from 51% | -2.1 | n=67 |
| + in September | 13-12 | 52%from 51% | -3.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -9.8 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 25-25 | 50%from 51% | -3.1 | n=50 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-12 | 45%from 50% | -3.0 | n=22 |
| + in September | 5-6 | 45%from 50% | -9.6 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-17 | 43%from 51% | -3.2 | n=30 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.