How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Ball State — the basics
136 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 34-33 | 51% | -2.1 | n=67 |
| vs Kent State | 4-2 | 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| in a conference game | 44-48 | 48% | -1.3 | n=92 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 61-65 | 48% | -1.6 | n=126 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 55-61 | 47% | -2.1 | n=116 |
| vs the Mid-American | 44-48 | 48% | -1.3 | n=92 |
| in September | 20-21 | 49% | -3.2 | n=41 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 30-29 | 51% | -1.2 | n=59 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Ball State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game | n=136 |
Ball State — combinations
37 lean Ball State · 46 lean against
Read this first. 104 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kent State + in a conference game | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| vs Kent State + vs an FBS opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| vs Kent State + vs a G5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| vs Kent State + vs the Mid-American | 4-2 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=6 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 22-17 | 56%from 48% | +1.3 | n=39 |
| vs the Mid-American + in the last 5 seasons | 22-17 | 56%from 48% | +1.3 | n=39 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 26-23 | 53%from 47% | -1.2 | n=49 |
| on the road + in September | 13-12 | 52%from 51% | -3.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -9.8 | n=11 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 34-33 | 51%from 51% | -2.1 | n=67 |
| + in September | 13-12 | 52%from 51% | -3.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-8 | 27%from 52% | -9.8 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 25-25 | 50%from 51% | -3.1 | n=50 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 22-22 | 50%from 50% | -2.3 | n=44 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-12 | 45%from 50% | -3.0 | n=22 |
| + in September | 5-6 | 45%from 50% | -9.6 | n=11 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 22-22 | 50%from 51% | -2.3 | n=44 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-9 | 53%from 50% | -0.2 | n=19 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -9.9 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-17 | 43%from 51% | -3.2 | n=30 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.