Western Michigan at Buffalo—

ST Model Western Michigan -1.7

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Western Michigan — the basics

141 graded games since 2014

on the road	36-31	54%	+1.7	n=67
in a conference game	49-43	53%	+1.4	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	68-61	53%	+1.2	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	66-51	56%	+2.9	n=117
vs the Mid-American	50-43	54%	+1.5	n=93
in October	24-17	59%	+3.5	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	35-27	56%	+1.4	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Western Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +9.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 141 graded games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=141
Western Michigan has covered 4 straight	n=4

Western Michigan — combinations

89 lean Western Michigan · 0 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in October	14-7	67%from 54%	+7.6	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 67%	+3.7	n=9
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+2.0	n=18
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-20	61%from 56%	+2.4	n=51
on the road + in a conference game	26-18	59%from 54%	+4.3	n=44
+ in October	13-7	65%from 59%	+7.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 65%	+3.1	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+1.2	n=18
+ vs an FBS opponent	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ in October	13-7	65%from 59%	+7.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+1.2	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ vs the Mid-American	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ vs a G5 opponent	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ in October	13-7	65%from 59%	+7.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+1.2	n=18
+ vs the Mid-American	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ vs the Mid-American	26-18	59%from 59%	+4.3	n=44
+ in October	13-7	65%from 59%	+7.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+1.2	n=18
on the road + vs the Mid-American	26-18	59%from 54%	+4.3	n=44
+ in October	13-7	65%from 59%	+7.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 65%	+3.1	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 59%	+1.2	n=18
vs an FBS opponent + in October	23-17	57%from 53%	+3.0	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 57%	+0.8	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Buffalo — the basics

125 graded games since 2014

at home	34-26	57%	+2.1	n=60
in a conference game	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	59-56	51%	+0.6	n=115
vs a G5 opponent	54-54	50%	+0.2	n=108
vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
in October	19-20	49%	+0.3	n=39
at this venue	34-26	57%	+2.1	n=60
in the last 5 seasons	27-31	47%	-0.9	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Buffalo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=125

Buffalo — combinations

67 lean Buffalo · 87 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs an FBS opponent	30-20	60%from 57%	+3.8	n=50
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.8	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	28-19	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=47
+ at this venue	28-19	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=47
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 60%	-3.6	n=21
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ at this venue	12-9	57%from 57%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 57%	-1.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	30-20	60%from 51%	+3.8	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
at home + in a conference game	25-17	60%from 57%	+3.6	n=42
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ in October	12-9	57%from 60%	+2.7	n=21
+ at this venue	12-9	57%from 57%	+2.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 57%	-1.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.