Ohio at Kent State—

ST Model Ohio -8.6

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Ohio — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-32	49%	+0.6	n=63
vs Kent State	6-3	67%	+7.3	n=9
in a conference game	51-40	56%	+3.4	n=91
vs an FBS opponent	71-56	56%	+2.6	n=127
vs a G5 opponent	65-56	54%	+2.4	n=121
vs the Mid-American	51-40	56%	+3.4	n=91
in October	20-21	49%	-0.1	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	36-28	56%	+1.8	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ohio — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Ohio — combinations

71 lean Ohio · 33 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Kent State + in a conference game	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
vs Kent State + vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
vs Kent State + vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
vs Kent State + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 67%	+7.3	n=9
+ in October	3-3	50%from 67%	+3.4	n=6
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 56%	+4.9	n=42

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Kent State — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

at home	29-28	51%	-0.2	n=57
vs Ohio	3-6	33%	-7.3	n=9
in a conference game	42-47	47%	-2.2	n=89
vs an FBS opponent	55-67	45%	-2.2	n=122
vs a G5 opponent	50-54	48%	-1.6	n=104
vs the Mid-American	42-47	47%	-2.2	n=89
in October	20-20	50%	-1.5	n=40
at this venue	29-28	51%	-0.2	n=57
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-2.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Kent State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=132

Kent State — combinations

7 lean Kent State · 125 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in October	9-8	53%from 51%	-0.5	n=17
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 53%	-0.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+1.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+1.7	n=8
in October + at this venue	9-8	53%from 50%	-0.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+1.7	n=8
at home + at this venue	29-28	51%from 51%	-0.2	n=57
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 51%	-0.8	n=25
at home + vs a G5 opponent	28-28	50%from 51%	-0.7	n=56
+ at this venue	28-28	50%from 50%	-0.7	n=56
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 50%	-0.8	n=25
+ in October	8-8	50%from 50%	-2.3	n=16
+ at this venue	8-8	50%from 50%	-2.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 50%	+1.7	n=8
+ vs the Mid-American	21-24	47%from 50%	-1.8	n=45
+ in October	8-8	50%from 47%	-2.3	n=16
+ at this venue	21-24	47%from 47%	-1.8	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 47%	-2.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 50%	-0.8	n=25
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	28-28	50%from 48%	-0.7	n=56
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 50%	-0.8	n=25
vs an FBS opponent + in October	20-20	50%from 45%	-1.5	n=40
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 50%	-0.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+1.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-11	39%from 50%	-3.2	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.