How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Buffalo — the basics
125 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 25-35 | 42% | -2.3 | n=60 |
| vs Toledo | 4-1 | 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| in a conference game | 42-44 | 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 59-56 | 51% | +0.6 | n=115 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 54-54 | 50% | +0.2 | n=108 |
| vs the Mid-American | 42-44 | 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| in October | 19-20 | 49% | +0.3 | n=39 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 27-31 | 47% | -0.9 | n=58 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Buffalo — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game | n=125 |
Buffalo — combinations
15 lean Buffalo · 88 lean against
Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toledo + in a conference game | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| vs Toledo + vs an FBS opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| vs Toledo + vs a G5 opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| vs Toledo + vs the Mid-American | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +12.4 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent | 50-48 | 51%from 51% | +0.9 | n=98 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 42-44 | 49%from 51% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| + in October | 18-19 | 49%from 49% | +0.4 | n=37 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-23 | 39%from 49% | -0.8 | n=38 |
| + in October | 18-19 | 49%from 51% | +0.4 | n=37 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-10 | 41%from 49% | +0.5 | n=17 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 19-26 | 42%from 51% | -0.9 | n=45 |
| in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent | 42-44 | 49%from 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 42-44 | 49%from 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 42-44 | 49%from 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| + in October | 18-19 | 49%from 49% | +0.4 | n=37 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-23 | 39%from 49% | -0.8 | n=38 |
| + vs the Mid-American | 42-44 | 49%from 49% | +0.8 | n=86 |
| + in October | 18-19 | 49%from 49% | +0.4 | n=37 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-23 | 39%from 49% | -0.8 | n=38 |
| + in October | 18-19 | 49%from 49% | +0.4 | n=37 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-10 | 41%from 49% | +0.5 | n=17 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-23 | 39%from 49% | -0.8 | n=38 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.