Buffalo at Ball State—

ST Model Buffalo -4

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Buffalo — the basics

125 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-35	42%	-2.3	n=60
in a conference game	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	59-56	51%	+0.6	n=115
vs a G5 opponent	54-54	50%	+0.2	n=108
vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
in November	18-21	46%	+1.3	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	27-31	47%	-0.9	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Buffalo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=125

Buffalo — combinations

1 lean Buffalo · 90 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 51%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 59% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	50-48	51%from 51%	+0.9	n=98
+ vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%from 51%	+0.8	n=86
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38
+ in November	18-21	46%from 51%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-11	31%from 46%	-3.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-26	42%from 51%	-0.9	n=45
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ vs a G5 opponent	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38
+ vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-11	31%from 46%	-3.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=86
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38
+ in November	18-21	46%from 49%	+1.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-11	31%from 46%	-3.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-23	39%from 49%	-0.8	n=38

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ball State — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

at home	29-36	45%	-1.5	n=65
in a conference game	44-48	48%	-1.3	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	61-65	48%	-1.6	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	55-61	47%	-2.1	n=116
vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%	-1.3	n=92
in November	19-24	44%	-2.4	n=43
at this venue	29-36	45%	-1.5	n=65
in the last 5 seasons	30-29	51%	-1.2	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ball State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=136

Ball State — combinations

62 lean Ball State · 92 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 45%	+1.8	n=28
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 45%	+1.8	n=28
in November + in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 44%	-0.1	n=19
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
vs the Mid-American + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-23	53%from 47%	-1.2	n=49
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-28	49%from 48%	-1.3	n=55
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
+ vs a G5 opponent	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
+ vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ at this venue	21-26	45%from 48%	-0.9	n=47
+ in November	19-24	44%from 48%	-2.4	n=43
+ vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
+ at this venue	21-26	45%from 48%	-0.9	n=47
+ in November	19-24	44%from 48%	-2.4	n=43
+ at this venue	21-26	45%from 48%	-0.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 45%	+2.8	n=20
+ in November	19-24	44%from 48%	-2.4	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 44%	-0.1	n=19
+ at this venue	8-13	38%from 44%	-2.9	n=21
in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
+ vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%from 48%	-1.3	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+1.3	n=39
+ at this venue	21-26	45%from 48%	-0.9	n=47
+ in November	19-24	44%from 48%	-2.4	n=43
+ at this venue	21-26	45%from 48%	-0.9	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 45%	+2.8	n=20
+ in November	19-24	44%from 48%	-2.4	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 44%	-0.1	n=19
+ at this venue	8-13	38%from 44%	-2.9	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.