Bowling Green at Toledo—

ST Model Toledo -15

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Bowling Green — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-34	51%	+1.5	n=69
vs Toledo	7-5	58%	+4.8	n=12
in a conference game	40-54	43%	-0.3	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	55-75	42%	-1.5	n=130
vs a G5 opponent	50-68	42%	-1.4	n=118
vs the Mid-American	40-54	43%	-0.3	n=94
in November	20-25	44%	+0.8	n=45
at this venue	4-2	67%	+8.4	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	31-31	50%	+1.4	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Bowling Green — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: -1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Bowling Green — combinations

116 lean Bowling Green · 63 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Toledo + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+8.5	n=5
on the road + vs Toledo	4-2	67%from 51%	+8.4	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+8.4	n=6
on the road + at this venue	4-2	67%from 51%	+8.4	n=6
vs Toledo + at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+8.4	n=6
in a conference game + at this venue	4-2	67%from 43%	+8.4	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 42%	+8.4	n=6
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 42%	+8.4	n=6
vs the Mid-American + at this venue	4-2	67%from 43%	+8.4	n=6
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	19-11	63%from 51%	+7.5	n=30
vs Toledo + in a conference game	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+8.5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+8.5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ vs the Mid-American	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in November	2-5	29%from 58%	-5.6	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+8.5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+8.4	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in November	2-5	29%from 58%	-5.6	n=7
+ vs the Mid-American	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.8	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+8.5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+8.4	n=6
+ in November	2-5	29%from 58%	-5.6	n=7
+ in November	2-5	29%from 58%	-5.6	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Toledo — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	37-31	54%	+1.7	n=68
vs Bowling Green	5-7	42%	-4.8	n=12
in a conference game	46-49	48%	-1.0	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	67-71	49%	-0.6	n=138
vs a G5 opponent	62-64	49%	-0.1	n=126
vs the Mid-American	46-49	48%	-1.0	n=95
in November	20-23	47%	-0.5	n=43
at this venue	37-31	54%	+1.7	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	34-33	51%	+0.3	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Toledo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148
Toledo has covered 2 straight	n=2

Toledo — combinations

77 lean Toledo · 117 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Bowling Green + in November	5-2	71%from 42%	+5.6	n=7
at home + vs a G5 opponent	34-28	55%from 54%	+2.0	n=62
+ at this venue	34-28	55%from 55%	+2.0	n=62
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-13	54%from 55%	+2.4	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-13	54%from 55%	+2.4	n=28
+ vs the Mid-American	23-22	51%from 55%	-0.0	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 51%	+1.5	n=20
+ at this venue	23-22	51%from 51%	-0.0	n=45
+ in November	8-10	44%from 51%	-0.9	n=18
+ in November	8-10	44%from 55%	-0.9	n=18
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 44%	-0.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.3	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	34-28	55%from 49%	+2.0	n=62
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-13	54%from 55%	+2.4	n=28
at home + at this venue	37-31	54%from 54%	+1.7	n=68
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 54%	+2.7	n=30
at home + in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 54%	+2.7	n=30
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 54%	+2.7	n=30
at home + vs an FBS opponent	30-28	52%from 54%	+0.2	n=58
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-12	52%from 52%	+1.0	n=25
+ vs a G5 opponent	27-25	52%from 52%	+0.4	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-11	52%from 52%	+0.4	n=23
+ at this venue	27-25	52%from 52%	+0.4	n=52
+ vs the Mid-American	23-22	51%from 52%	-0.0	n=45
+ in November	8-10	44%from 52%	-0.9	n=18
+ at this venue	30-28	52%from 52%	+0.2	n=58
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-12	52%from 52%	+1.0	n=25
+ vs the Mid-American	23-22	51%from 52%	-0.0	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 51%	+1.5	n=20
+ at this venue	23-22	51%from 51%	-0.0	n=45
+ in November	8-10	44%from 51%	-0.9	n=18
+ in November	8-10	44%from 52%	-0.9	n=18
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 44%	-0.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.3	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.