Central Michigan at Buffalo—

ST Model Buffalo -2.8

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Central Michigan — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	38-27	58%	+1.5	n=65
vs Buffalo	4-2	67%	+1.0	n=6
in a conference game	49-41	54%	+1.0	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	66-60	52%	-0.4	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	58-52	53%	-0.1	n=110
vs the Mid-American	49-41	54%	+1.0	n=90
in November	27-13	68%	+3.8	n=40
in the last 5 seasons	28-32	47%	-1.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Central Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Central Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Central Michigan — combinations

80 lean Central Michigan · 25 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 74%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	14-5	74%from 58%	+3.4	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 74%	+2.8	n=10
in a conference game + in November	27-13	68%from 54%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + in November	27-13	68%from 52%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs a G5 opponent + in November	27-13	68%from 53%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs the Mid-American + in November	27-13	68%from 54%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs Buffalo + in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
vs Buffalo + vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
vs Buffalo + vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
vs Buffalo + vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.0	n=6
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Buffalo — the basics

125 graded games since 2014

at home	34-26	57%	+2.1	n=60
vs Central Michigan	2-4	33%	-1.0	n=6
in a conference game	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	59-56	51%	+0.6	n=115
vs a G5 opponent	54-54	50%	+0.2	n=108
vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
in November	18-21	46%	+1.3	n=39
at this venue	34-26	57%	+2.1	n=60
in the last 5 seasons	27-31	47%	-0.9	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Buffalo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=125

Buffalo — combinations

67 lean Buffalo · 101 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in November	11-7	61%from 57%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 61%	-4.5	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 61%	-4.5	n=7
in November + at this venue	11-7	61%from 46%	+4.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 61%	-4.5	n=7
at home + vs an FBS opponent	30-20	60%from 57%	+3.8	n=50
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 61%	-4.5	n=7
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.8	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	28-19	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=47
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	28-19	60%from 60%	+3.4	n=47
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 60%	-3.6	n=21
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	30-20	60%from 51%	+3.8	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 60%	-2.2	n=22
at home + in a conference game	25-17	60%from 57%	+3.6	n=42
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 61%	-4.5	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ vs the Mid-American	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in November	11-7	61%from 60%	+4.9	n=18
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ at this venue	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.6	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 60%	-2.9	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.