Buffalo at Akron—

ST Model PK

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Buffalo — the basics

125 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-35	42%	-2.3	n=60
vs Akron	7-4	64%	+6.7	n=11
in a conference game	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	59-56	51%	+0.6	n=115
vs a G5 opponent	54-54	50%	+0.2	n=108
vs the Mid-American	42-44	49%	+0.8	n=86
in November	18-21	46%	+1.3	n=39
at this venue	4-2	67%	+3.0	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	27-31	47%	-0.9	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Buffalo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 125 graded games: +0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=125

Buffalo — combinations

78 lean Buffalo · 90 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Akron	4-2	67%from 42%	+3.0	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.0	n=6
on the road + at this venue	4-2	67%from 42%	+3.0	n=6
vs Akron + at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+3.0	n=6
in a conference game + at this venue	4-2	67%from 49%	+3.0	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 51%	+3.0	n=6
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 50%	+3.0	n=6
vs the Mid-American + at this venue	4-2	67%from 49%	+3.0	n=6
vs Akron + in a conference game	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ vs the Mid-American	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+1.6	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the Mid-American	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+1.6	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	7-4	64%from 64%	+6.7	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+3.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+1.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+1.6	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Akron — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

at home	24-37	39%	-3.4	n=61
vs Buffalo	4-7	36%	-6.7	n=11
in a conference game	44-48	48%	-2.5	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	56-68	45%	-2.8	n=124
vs a G5 opponent	52-59	47%	-1.9	n=111
vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%	-2.5	n=92
in November	21-20	51%	-1.7	n=41
at this venue	24-37	39%	-3.4	n=61
in the last 5 seasons	29-29	50%	-0.4	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Akron — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: -2.4 pts vs their number per game	n=132

Akron — combinations

65 lean Akron · 129 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 69%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in November + in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.9	n=39
vs the Mid-American + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.9	n=39
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-21	55%from 47%	+1.0	n=47
in a conference game + in November	21-20	51%from 48%	-1.7	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 51%	-4.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 41%	+1.1	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in November	21-20	51%from 45%	-1.7	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 51%	-4.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 41%	+1.1	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + in November	21-20	51%from 47%	-1.7	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 51%	-4.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 41%	+1.1	n=9
vs the Mid-American + in November	21-20	51%from 48%	-1.7	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 51%	-4.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 41%	+1.1	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-27	50%from 45%	-0.8	n=54
at home + in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 39%	-1.3	n=26
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 39%	-1.3	n=26
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-48	48%from 48%	-2.5	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.9	n=39
+ in November	21-20	51%from 48%	-1.7	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-5	69%from 51%	+4.9	n=16
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 51%	-4.8	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	44-48	48%from 48%	-2.5	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.9	n=39
+ in November	21-20	51%from 48%	-1.7	n=41
+ vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%from 48%	-2.5	n=92
+ at this venue	21-25	46%from 48%	-3.3	n=46
+ vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%from 48%	-2.5	n=92
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.9	n=39
+ in November	21-20	51%from 48%	-1.7	n=41
+ at this venue	21-25	46%from 48%	-3.3	n=46
+ at this venue	21-25	46%from 48%	-3.3	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 46%	-1.5	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.