Central Michigan at Ball State—

ST Model Central Michigan -4.3

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Central Michigan — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	38-27	58%	+1.5	n=65
vs Ball State	3-7	30%	-0.7	n=10
in a conference game	49-41	54%	+1.0	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	66-60	52%	-0.4	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	58-52	53%	-0.1	n=110
vs the Mid-American	49-41	54%	+1.0	n=90
in November	27-13	68%	+3.8	n=40
at this venue	3-2	60%	+9.5	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	28-32	47%	-1.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Central Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Central Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Central Michigan — combinations

118 lean Central Michigan · 39 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 74%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	14-5	74%from 58%	+3.4	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 74%	+2.8	n=10
in a conference game + in November	27-13	68%from 54%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + in November	27-13	68%from 52%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs a G5 opponent + in November	27-13	68%from 53%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
vs the Mid-American + in November	27-13	68%from 54%	+3.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 68%	+3.7	n=19
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	28-18	61%from 58%	+2.2	n=46
+ in November	14-5	74%from 61%	+3.4	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 74%	+2.8	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 61%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	26-18	59%from 61%	+1.4	n=44
+ in November	14-5	74%from 59%	+3.4	n=19
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 59%	+9.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-13	35%from 59%	-3.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 61%	-1.2	n=22
on the road + vs Ball State	3-2	60%from 58%	+9.5	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ball State — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

at home	29-36	45%	-1.5	n=65
vs Central Michigan	7-3	70%	+0.7	n=10
in a conference game	44-48	48%	-1.3	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	61-65	48%	-1.6	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	55-61	47%	-2.1	n=116
vs the Mid-American	44-48	48%	-1.3	n=92
in November	19-24	44%	-2.4	n=43
at this venue	29-36	45%	-1.5	n=65
in the last 5 seasons	30-29	51%	-1.2	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ball State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=136

Ball State — combinations

76 lean Ball State · 119 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Central Michigan + in a conference game	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
vs Central Michigan + vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
vs Central Michigan + vs a G5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
vs Central Michigan + vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 70%	+0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 70%	-9.5	n=5
at home + in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 45%	+1.8	n=28

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.