How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
App State — the basics
144 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 33-33 | 50% | +2.0 | n=66 |
| vs Georgia Southern | 4-9 | 31% | -2.4 | n=13 |
| in a conference game | 43-51 | 46% | +0.9 | n=94 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 62-67 | 48% | +1.3 | n=129 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 59-69 | 46% | +1.4 | n=128 |
| vs the Sun Belt | 43-52 | 45% | +0.8 | n=95 |
| in October | 20-22 | 48% | +0.3 | n=42 |
| at this venue | 1-5 | 17% | -5.3 | n=6 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 25-37 | 40% | -2.4 | n=62 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
App State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -7.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 144 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game | n=144 |
| App State has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
App State — combinations
10 lean App State · 149 lean against
Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 56%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 32-32 | 50%from 50% | +2.1 | n=64 |
| + in October | 10-9 | 53%from 50% | +3.0 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 53% | -6.7 | n=8 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 25-27 | 48%from 50% | +1.9 | n=52 |
| + in October | 10-8 | 56%from 48% | +3.5 | n=18 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 21-25 | 46%from 48% | +1.4 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-15 | 35%from 48% | -4.9 | n=23 |
| + at this venue | 1-5 | 17%from 48% | -5.3 | n=6 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 21-25 | 46%from 50% | +1.4 | n=46 |
| + in October | 10-8 | 56%from 46% | +3.5 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-14 | 33%from 46% | -4.6 | n=21 |
| + at this venue | 1-5 | 17%from 46% | -5.3 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-16 | 41%from 50% | -3.8 | n=27 |
| + at this venue | 1-5 | 17%from 50% | -5.3 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in October | 19-19 | 50%from 48% | +0.7 | n=38 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-9 | 44%from 50% | -3.6 | n=16 |
| on the road + in October | 10-10 | 50%from 50% | +2.4 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 50% | -6.7 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs a G5 opponent | 26-28 | 48%from 50% | +1.8 | n=54 |
| + in October | 10-9 | 53%from 48% | +2.9 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 53% | -6.7 | n=8 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 22-26 | 46%from 48% | +1.4 | n=48 |
| + in October | 10-9 | 53%from 46% | +2.9 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-14 | 33%from 46% | -4.6 | n=21 |
| + at this venue | 1-5 | 17%from 46% | -5.3 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-15 | 35%from 48% | -4.9 | n=23 |
| + at this venue | 1-5 | 17%from 48% | -5.3 | n=6 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.